Sugar Market Slips Sideways โ Front Month Gains, Curve Weakens
๐ Sugar Market Slips Sideways โ Front Month Gains, Curve Weakens
On 24 April 2025, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures delivered a mixed performance. The August 2025 contract rose modestly by 0.24% to USD 504.50/t (EUR 469.18/t), while all subsequent contracts closed in the red. The price curve shows continued weakness beyond Q3, reflecting oversupply, lack of industrial demand, and growing resistance to elevated EU spot prices.๐ ICE Sugar No. 5 โ Closing Summary (24.04.2025)
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)๐งญ Market Commentary
๐ Stagnation in the Curveโ While front-month contracts like August saw limited gains, later months slipped.โ Technical factors influence short-term moves, but fundamentals dominate beyond Q3.๐ช๐บ EU Pricing Still DetachedDespite softening international trends, FCA spot prices remain quoted at EUR 0.56โ0.59/kg.โ Buyers increasingly resist offers, as the price gap with global levels surpasses 20%.
๐๏ธ Retail Prices Remain Unchangedโ Supermarket shelf prices are still stable. No movement reported in any core EU region.
๐ Current 1โฏkg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 24.04.2025)
Last verified within the last 3 days.๐ฎ 3-Day Price Forecast (25โ27 April 2025)
๐ Outlook:Market may remain trapped in a sideways pattern. A catalyst โ either political (e.g., Mercosur, Brazil exports) or structural (stock changes) โ is needed.๐ Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021โ2025f)
๐งญ Conclusion & Strategy
โ Technical strength in front-month futures remains, but is fragile.โ EU spot prices still face buyer resistance.๐ Retail market signals no justification for further price hikes.๐ Recommendations:
- ๐ Buyers: Maintain pressure โ international levels support lower pricing.
- ๐ฆ Sellers: Monitor resistance thresholds โ volume-based discounts may be needed.
- ๐ Traders: Focus on curve dynamics โ longer-dated contracts remain under pressure.
