Rapeseed Futures Hold Firm as Canola Surges – Weather and Global Demand in Focus

Rapeseed prices showed mixed performance midweek. While the most-traded August contract on Euronext posted modest gains, futures in Canada surged for a second day, lifting the broader oilseed complex. Soybean strength, tightening old-crop canola supply, and weather concerns continue to support underlying market sentiment.

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📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends

📌 European futures were stable while Canadian canola and U.S. soybeans continued their upward trend.

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🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

🔹 📈 Canadian Canola Continues Its Rally

📊 On ICE Canada (Winnipeg):

• Jul 2025 Canola hit a 2-month high at C$697.40/t
• Nov 2025 contract climbed to a 6-month high
• Support came from a tight old-crop supply and persistent domestic demand

📌 Tight stocks in Canada are lifting global oilseed benchmarks.

🔹 📉 EU Rapeseed Weighed Down by Better Crop Outlook

📊 In Europe:

• Weather conditions improved across key growing areas
• However, Baltic and Eastern EU regions remain too dry

📌 Improved rainfall in Western and Central Europe caps further gains in rapeseed.

🔹 📊 Positioning Shows Fund Confidence in Rapeseed

📊 Euronext COT data (as of April 18):

• Net long in rapeseed increased to 29,139 contracts (up from 25,940)
• Commercials held net short of 29,559 contracts (up slightly WoW)

📌 Funds are building bullish exposure as sentiment improves.

🔹 📈 Soy Complex Boosted by Oil and Beans

📊 At CBOT:

• Soybeans hit a 2-month high, buoyed by easing trade war fears
• Soy oil rallied, while soymeal declined, narrowing the crush margin

📌 Soybean strength continues to support the oilseed complex globally.

🔹 📦 USDA Weekly Exports in Focus

📊 USDA export sales report (expected today):

• Old-crop soybeans (2023/24): 200,000–600,000 t
• New-crop (2024/25): 0–200,000 t
• Soymeal: 150,000–400,000 t
• Soy oil: 5,000–35,000 t

📌 Export figures could provide further support or confirm current resistance levels.

🔹 📉 Crude Oil Weakness Limits Gains

📊 Crude oil futures fell:

• Kazakh energy minister signalled no production cuts, prioritising national interests over OPEC+
• This increases the risk of OPEC+ retaliation and price war pressure

📌 Weaker energy prices can soften biofuel-linked demand for vegetable oils.

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🔮 3. Price Forecast (April 25–27, 2025)

📌 Expect prices to remain firm but range-bound, with direction guided by USDA data and crude oil.

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⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Rapeseed Regions

🇪🇺 EU – Western & Central Europe

📍 Current: Rainfall improves crop outlook in France, Germany📆 Outlook:

• 🌧️ Intermittent showers expected
• 🌡️ Warmer conditions may accelerate crop growth

🇪🇺 EU – Baltics & Eastern Europe

📍 Current: Soil remains drier than average📆 Outlook:

• 🌧️ Minimal precipitation forecast
• 🌡️ Risk of continued moisture deficit in Poland, Baltic

📌 Rain in the west, drought risk in the east – overall sentiment stabilising.

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📉 5. Market Data Highlights – Fund & Export Trends

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📌 6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations

📍 Key Takeaways: ✅ Canadian canola rallies as tight stocks meet strong demand✅ Rapeseed firm despite better EU weather – dry Baltic limit losses✅ Soybeans benefit from easing trade fears, strong crush support✅ Crude oil weakness may limit further upside

📌 Recommendations: 🔹 Producers: Take advantage of seasonal strength to lock in old-crop sales🔹 Buyers: Monitor oilseed spreads and fund positioning for entry points🔹 Traders: Watch USDA export figures and ICE/CBOT price action for momentum cues

📍 Vegetable oil markets remain firm, supported by global tightness and weather risks in key producing regions.