📊 Market Overview: Sesame Seed Dynamics

The global sesame seed market is witnessing significant fluctuations, driven by diverse factors ranging from inventory changes in China to crop expansions in India. As of April 2025, Qingdao Port reported a rare spike in sesame seed stocks, reaching 300,625 MT, marking a substantial increase from the previous year. This inventory rise is largely attributed to Nigeria doubling its stock contributions.

In contrast, Turkey's market remains subdued amidst high interest rates and steady local prices, despite the end of Ramadan. Notably, Brazil's competitive pricing is reshaping import dynamics, particularly in India where imports have surged by 24% at lower prices.

On the cultivation front, India's sown area has expanded by 6%, promising a robust harvest that may alter market dynamics in the coming months. Meanwhile, Tanzania and Mozambique are bracing for uncertain crop yields due to dry spells, potentially tightening global supplies.

📉 Recent Price Movements

📈 Key Market Drivers

• China's inventory levels are influencing global supply perceptions.
• India's expanded crop area and upcoming harvest are expected to increase market supply.
• Weather conditions in major producing regions like Tanzania and Mozambique could impact crop yields and export timings.

⛅ Weather Forecast – Impact on Harvest

The weather in major sesame producing areas such as India and East Africa shows mild to moderate rainfall over the next three days, which could benefit the crop conditions but may delay harvesting in some regions.

📊 Global Production and Stock Levels

📈 Trading Recommendations

• Buyers should monitor Indian markets closely for the upcoming harvest influx.
• Sellers in drought-affected regions should consider securing contracts ahead of potential yield reductions.
• Traders should keep an eye on China's inventory levels as they could influence global pricing trends.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast

Prices are expected to remain stable with potential slight increases in regions anticipating lower yields due to weather impacts.