📊 Market Overview: Almond Kernels
A fresh upward trend is forming in the almond kernel market, fueled by concerns over reduced production in California. Exporters have already started booking at higher prices, causing importers in India to raise their quotations as well. After a mild softening phase over the past 8–10 days, prices are firming up again due to tight supply.
📈 Current Market Prices and Trends
📉 Key Market Drivers
- California's production forecast at 2.05 billion pounds, down 10-12% YoY.
- Booking rates in California rose sharply from USD 1.87/lb to USD 2.45/lb in a fortnight.
- Indian port arrivals and stock availability significantly lower than last year.
â›… Weather Outlook: Key Growing Regions
California, the main almond producing region, is experiencing unfavorable weather conditions with lower water availability, impacting both flowering and fruit development. This is expected to further tighten the global supply.
📈 Global Production and Inventory Comparison
With a significant drop in California's production and a decrease in active growers, global almond supply is tightening. This is compounded by a 33-34% drop in Indian stock availability compared to last year.
🔮 Price Forecast: Next 3 Days
Given the current trends and market drivers, prices are expected to continue rising, potentially breaching USD 10.80/kg in India if the tight supply persists.
