Sugar Futures Rally โ Short-Term Recovery, Long-Term Pressure Remains
๐ Sugar Futures Rally โ Short-Term Recovery, Long-Term Pressure Remains
On 25 April 2025, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures posted strong gains across all contracts. The August 2025 contract rose by 1.85% to USD 514.00/t (EUR 478.02/t). While the technical rebound brought temporary relief, the EU spot market remains detached from international dynamics, sustained by trade protections. Consumer sugar prices in supermarkets are showing a different, much softer trend.๐ ICE Sugar No. 5 โ Closing Summary (25.04.2025)
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)๐งญ Market Overview
๐ Technical Bounce โ But Fundamentals Unchangedโ The strong movement reflects short-covering and technical buying, not fresh fundamental support.โ Brazilian exports remain high; no major supply disruptions reported.๐ช๐บ EU Market Remains Protected and Price-Inflatedโ FCA spot prices continue at EUR 0.56โ0.59/kg, detached from global benchmarks.โ Mercosur ratification delays continue to shield the EU sugar market from external competition.
๐๏ธ Consumer Prices Tell a Different Storyโ Supermarket prices for 1โฏkg of sugar remain stable or falling across most markets.โ The gap between retail prices and industrial FCA offers is wider than ever.
๐ Current 1โฏkg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 25.04.2025)
Last checked within the last 3 days.๐ฎ 3-Day Price Forecast (26โ28 April 2025)
๐ Outlook:The rally could be short-lived without fundamental support (demand boost or supply issues). Trend risk remains on the downside for a longer term.๐ Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021โ2025 forecast)
๐งญ Conclusion & Strategy
โ Futures markets show technical strength, but sustainability is questionable.โ EU market remains overpriced compared to global trends, shielded by tariffs and import barriers.๐ Retail signals and global flows argue against significant long-term rallies.๐ Recommendations:
- ๐ Buyers: Do not chase prices; use the rally to negotiate discounts.
- ๐ฆ Sellers: Lock in forward contracts while futures offer support, but be cautious.
- ๐ Traders: Monitor resistance zones around EUR 480โ485/t โ upside looks capped.
