Sugar Market Attempts Rebound – Short-Term Gains After Days of Losses
📉 Sugar Market Attempts Rebound – Short-Term Gains After Days of Losses
On 2 May 2025, the sugar market showed signs of stabilisation. The August 2025 contract increased 0.29% to USD 479.10/t (EUR 445.56/t), while front-month contracts remained under pressure. Despite a cautious uptick in longer maturities, overall sentiment remains fragile amid persistent supply concerns and tepid demand. EU spot prices continue to hover between EUR 0.56–0.59/kg FCA, signalling a disconnect from global softness.📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (02.05.2025)
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)🧭 Market Commentary
📈 Signs of Stabilisation – But Bearish Momentum Lingers– Front contracts (Aug–Dec 2025) still posted modest losses.– Deferred contracts (2026–2028) recorded marginal gains on light volume.– The market remains under pressure due to large expected output in Brazil and no pickup in global demand.🇪🇺 EU FCA Prices Static– The traders' report offers FCA between EUR 0.56 and 0.59/kg for white sugar.– No sign of softening despite a ~10% drop on ICE No.5 within 2 weeks.
🛒 Retail Prices Still Elevated– No visible adjustment in consumer shelf prices in major EU markets.
🛒 Current 1 kg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 02.05.2025)
Verified within the last 3 days.🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (3–5 May 2025)
📌 Outlook:The market may attempt to consolidate between USD 480–490/t, but a downward bias remains dominant.📊 Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025f)
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
✅ Minor rebound in deferred contracts – but sentiment remains fragile.⚠️ The global market is saturated; buyers are reluctant to lock in volumes.📊 Support seen at USD 475/t – if broken, selling could accelerate.📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: Stay defensive – further downside remains possible.
- 📦 Sellers: Hedge Q3 positions; monitor Brazil’s weather closely.
- 📈 Traders: Watch for a technical bounce near USD 480–485/t.