Sugar Futures Rebound โ Traders React to Technical Floor and Fund Activity
๐ Sugar Futures Rebound โ Traders React to Technical Floor and Fund Activity
After a stagnant holiday session, ICE Sugar No.5 returned to active trading on 6 May with broad-based gains. The August 2025 contract rose by 0.83% to USD 493.80/t (EUR 459.23/t). Technical buying, short-covering, and a rebound in oil prices helped lift prices across the curve. Despite the uptick, sentiment remains cautious as fundamentals are unchanged.๐ ICE Sugar No.5 โ Closing Summary (06.05.2025)
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)๐งญ Market Commentary
๐ Rebound Fueled by Technical Factorsโ Prices rose after touching key support levels last week.โ Speculators likely closed short positions amid stronger energy markets.โ Fundamentals (high supply, weak demand) remain unchanged.๐ Volume Recoveryโ August 2025: 7,779 lots traded (highest since 29 April).โ Broad participation across October and December contracts indicates wider market re-engagement.
๐ช๐บ EU Market Reaction Still Mutedโ FCA prices still range between EUR 0.56โ0.59/kg, unchanged from prior days.โ Importers are cautious, but retail pricing is still elevated.
๐ Current 1โฏkg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 06.05.2025)
Latest verification: within 3 days๐ฎ 3-Day Price Forecast (7โ9 May 2025)
๐ Outlook:Short-term rebound could continue toward USD 498/t, but macro and demand risks cap upside.๐งญ Conclusion & Strategy
โ Rebound driven by technicals, not fundamentals.๐ Physical sugar is still oversupplied; the demand side remains soft.๐ Volatility expected to return ahead of Brazilโs mid-May harvest updates.๐ Recommendations:
- ๐ Buyers: Use current levels for short-term cover, avoid chasing spikes.
- ๐ฆ Sellers: Watch resistance at USD 498โ500/t; consider hedging Q3.
- ๐ Traders: Momentum has flipped positive, but fragile โ trail stops closely.
