Sugar Market Rebounds Sharply โ Bullish Momentum Returns Across the Curve
๐ Sugar Market Rebounds Sharply โ Bullish Momentum Returns Across the Curve
On 8 May 2025, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures surged, posting the strongest single-day gains in over two weeks. The August 2025 contract rose 1.92% to USD 494.90/t (EUR 460.26/t). Broad-based buying interest pushed all contracts into positive territory. Despite strong technical support, EU spot prices remain resistant to change, hovering at EUR 0.56โ0.59/kg FCA.๐ ICE Sugar No. 5 โ Closing Summary (08.05.2025)
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)๐งญ Market Commentary
๐ Strong Technical Rebound Across the Boardโ Following a period of heavy losses, buyers stepped in aggressively.โ Momentum was supported by short-covering, possibly triggered by currency shifts and Brazil logistics headlines.๐ช๐บ EU Spot Market Remains Unmovedโ Despite global gains, FCA spot offers hold steady at EUR 0.56โ0.59/kg.โ Buyers are sceptical, citing a growing disconnect with global pricing.
๐ Retail Prices Stay Flat โ No Signs of Pass-Throughโ Consumer shelf prices remain well below industrial levels in nearly all European markets.
๐ Current 1โฏkg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 08.05.2025)
Last verified within the last 3 days.๐ฎ 3-Day Price Forecast (09โ11 May 2025)
๐ Outlook:Short-term momentum favours bulls, but the market may meet resistance without fundamental follow-through.๐ Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021โ2025f)
๐งญ Conclusion & Strategy
โ Strong bounce back across all maturities.โ EU spot prices remain overly firm โ out of sync with consumer pricing.๐ Without a clear fundamental shift, today's rally may be short-lived.๐ Recommendations:
- ๐ Buyers: Monitor rally cautiously โ opportunity for renegotiation.
- ๐ฆ Sellers: Use short-term momentum to lock in volumes.
- ๐ Traders: Watch for confirmation above USD 500/t to sustain the uptrend.
