U.S. Corn Exports Hit 19-Week High – Futures Remain Weak as South America Weighs
➡ U.S. Corn Exports Hit 19-Week High – Futures Remain Weak as South America Weighs
Corn futures closed lower on Thursday despite the strongest U.S. export sales in over four months. Market sentiment remained subdued due to ample South American supply and favourable planting conditions in the U.S.
Chicago and Paris corn futures moved lower again, pressured by South American expectations and pre-WASDE caution. Nevertheless, weekly U.S. export sales were exceptionally strong. Brazil reported an April export collapse ahead of its new harvest, while traders await the USDA’s 2025/26 global outlook on Monday.
Corn futures closed lower on Thursday despite the strongest U.S. export sales in over four months. Market sentiment remained subdued due to ample South American supply and favourable planting conditions in the U.S.
Chicago and Paris corn futures moved lower again, pressured by South American expectations and pre-WASDE caution. Nevertheless, weekly U.S. export sales were exceptionally strong. Brazil reported an April export collapse ahead of its new harvest, while traders await the USDA’s 2025/26 global outlook on Monday.
📈 Market Situation & Price Development
🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)
➡ July contract failed to hold gains despite bullish export data.🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)
➡ Paris futures fell across the curve, reflecting weak global sentiment.🔍 Key Market Drivers
- 🚢 U.S. Export Sales Hit 19-Week High (USDA, May 9):
- Sales for week ending May 1: 1.662 million tons
- Beat analyst range (0.7–1.4 Mt)
- +87% vs. same week 2024
- Strongest weekly corn sales since early January
- 🌍 WASDE Expectations (due Monday):
- Old crop U.S. ending stocks: 1.443 billion bu (−22 million bu expected)
- New crop projection (first release): 2.02 billion bu
- Traders cautious ahead of long-term supply outlook
- 🇧🇷 Brazil Corn Exports Collapse in April:
- April exports: 178,347 t
- −79.5% vs. March, but higher than April 2024
- Seasonal decline as the new harvest approaches
- 🌤 U.S. Weather Remains Favourable:
- Light rains are improving soil conditions
- No planting delays expected in the short term
☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)
🌍 Corn Market Snapshot (Updated)
💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment
- ⚖️ Bullish signals from exports, but not enough to break the bearish trend
- 📉 Brazil's supply is growing, pressuring summer contracts
- 🧭 Focus now turns fully to Monday’s WASDE
- Wait for WASDE clarity before increasing exposure
- Watch technical support near 445 ct/bu (CBOT July)
- Short-covering is possible if USDA cuts stocks more than expected
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (May 10–12)
