📜 Wheat Futures Retreat Again – Rain Outlook and Weak EU Export Demand Weigh on Market 📜

Wheat futures declined on Wednesday as rain forecasts in key growing regions and sluggish EU exports continued to pressure prices. While domestic demand in Europe provides some support, global fundamentals remain bearish, especially with speculative short positioning expanding on Euronext.

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📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Trends

📌 Both exchanges remain under pressure as weather improves across the Northern Hemisphere.

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🌍 2. Key Market Drivers & Influencing Factors

🔹 📉 Favourable Weather Forecasts Continue

📊 Meteorological outlook:

• 🌧️ Rains are expected in the U.S. Plains and the Black Sea region
• 🌦️ Central Europe is receiving beneficial moisture
• 🌬️ Northern China remains hot and dry

📌 Weather conditions favour supply-side optimism, adding pressure to futures.

🔹 📉 EU Export Demand Still Sluggish

📊 Domestic dynamics:

• Traders report domestic rerouting of wheat originally destined for export
• A few shipments to Morocco, Angola, and Cameroon were loaded, but related to older contracts

📌 Lack of fresh export demand weighs on Euronext prices.

🔹 📉 Speculative Selling Intensifies

📊 Euronext COT report (as of May 2):

• Net short positions expanded to 239,823 contracts
• Up from 228,261 the previous week

📌 Funds continue to bet on falling prices in Paris.

🔹 📊 Chinese Heat Stress Adds Mild Support

📊 In Henan Province (1/3 of China's wheat):

• Temperatures expected above 35°C from May 11–13
• Risks of yield damage rise

📌 China has large reserves, but import speculation lingers.

🔹 📉 U.S. Exports Expected to Slow

📊 USDA weekly export sales (to be released today):

• Old crop net sales: estimated between –100,000 and +150,000 t
• New crop (2025/26): expected at 200,000–400,000 t

📌 Muted export demand keeps a lid on CBOT wheat gains.

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🔮 3. Price Forecast (May 9–13, 2025)

📌 Expect further pressure unless Chinese or Middle Eastern demand triggers buying.

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⛅ 4. 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Growing Regions

🇨🇳 China – Henan

📍 Current: Dry and warm📆 Forecast (May 11–13):

• 🌡️ Temps above 35°C
• 🌧️ Very limited rainfall

📌 Heat stress may trim yield potential in key areas.

🇺🇸 USA – Plains

📍 Current: Continued soil moisture improvement📆 Outlook:

• 🌧️ Rain forecast in most dry zones
• 🌡️ Seasonal temps aid wheat growth

🇪🇺 Europe – France, Germany, Poland

📍 Current: Moisture levels are improving in the west📆 Outlook:

• 🌧️ Beneficial rains in central Europe
• 🌬️ Northeast (Baltic/North Germany): Still too dry

📌 Moisture variation leads to mixed yield potential.

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📉 5. Market Data Highlights

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📌 6. Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations

📍 Key Takeaways:✅ Weather continues to weigh on global wheat markets✅ Euronext struggles with weak exports and rising speculative pressure✅ Chinese heat risk offers only marginal support✅ U.S. fundamentals remain strong, limiting export-driven upside

📌 Recommendations:🔹 Producers: Use rallies for incremental sales🔹 Buyers: Monitor Euronext for fresh demand signs from North Africa🔹 Traders: Watch USDA export figures and China's crop conditions for sentiment shifts

📍 Wheat markets remain directionless but prone to volatility around weather and fund activity.