The Guar seeds market has recently experienced a turbulent phase, characterized by a sharp drop in prices driven by subdued industrial demand. Over the past month, Guar Gum prices in major Indian markets such as Jodhpur and Ahmedabad plummeted by USD 0.95 per KG, settling at USD 1,12–1,13 per kg, while Guar seed prices fell by USD 0.23 to USD 0,59–0,61 per kg. This downturn can be attributed to weak export and domestic demand, speculative trading, and apprehensions regarding potential tariff impositions by the US government. Despite this bearish sentiment, the market is showing signs of stabilization, with no further significant declines expected. Farmers' interest in Guar cultivation has waned due to the price drop, and arrivals in Rajasthan and Haryana markets have ceased. However, the Indian Meteorological Department's forecast of a favorable monsoon raises hopes for improved yields and market recovery, provided demand rebounds. With Guar Gum being a critical export commodity to countries like the US, Russia, and Japan, global trade policies and weather developments will be pivotal in shaping the market outlook in the coming months.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Production Regions: Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Haryana dominate Guar cultivation.
• Arrivals: Market arrivals have ended in Rajasthan and Haryana due to low prices and reduced farmer interest.
• Demand: Industrial demand remains weak, especially from export markets. Speculative activity has caused further volatility in futures (NCDEX May delivery).
• Exports: Guar Gum is exported mainly to the US, Russia, Italy, Japan, and France. Trade concerns due to potential US tariffs are weighing on sentiment.

📊 Fundamentals

• Inventory Levels: Stockpiles in India remain comfortable due to weak offtake.
• Farmer Sentiment: Lower prices have discouraged sowing intentions for the upcoming season.
• Speculative Positioning: Notable decline in May NCDEX contracts, indicating cautious trader outlook.
• Comparative Data: Last season's report indicated firmer prices and stronger export demand, highlighting the current downturn as a significant deviation.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Monsoon Forecast: The Indian Meteorological Department predicts a good monsoon, which could boost yields and support a future price recovery.
• Short-term Weather: Current pre-monsoon showers in Rajasthan and Gujarat are favorable for soil moisture, aiding early sowing prospects.
• Impact: A robust monsoon will be critical in determining the next production cycle and price direction.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

📆 Market Outlook & Trading Recommendations

• Further downside is limited after recent sharp corrections; prices are expected to stabilize near current levels.
• Watch for a revival in export demand, especially from the US and EU, as a key trigger for price recovery.
• Monitor monsoon progress—good rains could support a rebound in sowing and future supply, capping any sharp rallies.
• Speculators should remain cautious due to lingering trade policy uncertainties.
• End-users may consider building inventory at current prices, anticipating limited downside and potential recovery.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast