The mustard seeds market is experiencing a bullish undertone, driven by a combination of lower arrivals in major producing states and heightened demand from oil mills. On Friday, mustard seed prices in Jaipur climbed by Rs 125 to Rs 6,375 per quintal, while branded oil mills increased their procurement rates by Rs 75–100 per quintal. The daily arrival of mustard in the mandis dropped to 3.75 lakh sacks, a significant decrease from the previous day’s 4.5 lakh sacks, highlighting tightening supply. Farmers are holding back stock, unwilling to sell at lower prices, despite favorable weather conditions across key producing regions. This supply-side firmness is further reinforced by the seasonal uptick in mustard oil consumption, keeping domestic demand robust. Globally, edible oil markets are showing bullish trends, with Malaysian palm oil futures and Chicago soybean oil contracts posting gains. However, experts caution that the upside may be capped due to anticipated increases in Malaysian palm oil production and inventory levels. The interplay between domestic supply constraints, international edible oil trends, and cautious farmer selling sets the stage for a market that is firm but sensitive to global oilseed developments. As we move forward, mustard seed prices are expected to remain supported, with any significant shifts likely hinging on changes in imported edible oil prices and further weather developments in the subcontinent.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Arrivals: Daily arrivals in major Indian mandis fell to 3.75 lakh bags, down from 4.5 lakh bags previously.
• Farmer Behavior: Farmers are reluctant to sell at current prices, holding back inventories in anticipation of higher rates.
• Oil Mill Demand: Oil mills, especially branded operators, have raised procurement prices, reflecting strong demand.
• Global Edible Oil Market: Bullish trends in Malaysian palm oil and Chicago soybean oil support mustard oil prices, but rising inventories may limit further gains.
• Consumption: Domestic demand for mustard oil is seasonally high, underpinning prices despite limited export opportunities.

📊 Fundamentals

• Weather: Conditions have cleared across key producing regions, but supply remains tight due to farmer holding.
• Inventories: Rising global edible oil inventories (palm, soybean) could cap further upside, though immediate impact on mustard is limited.
• Speculative Activity: Limited speculative activity reported in mustard; focus remains on physical demand and arrivals.
• Price Drivers: Domestic arrivals, oil mill procurement, and global edible oil trends are the primary price movers.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• India (Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana): Weather remains clear, supporting harvest and post-harvest activities. No major disruptions expected in the next 3 days.
• Global Outlook: No significant weather threats reported in major global oilseed producing regions. Malaysian palm oil production is expected to rise due to favorable weather.
• Impact: Stable weather will support steady arrivals if farmers choose to release stocks, but immediate supply remains tight.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Maintain a bullish-to-neutral stance in the short term, supported by tight arrivals and robust oil mill demand.
• Monitor global edible oil price trends, especially palm and soybean oil, for spillover effects on mustard seed prices.
• Watch for any signs of increased farmer selling as prices rise; this could ease the tightness in the physical market.
• End-users should consider covering near-term requirements as prices may remain elevated until arrivals improve.
• Exporters should stay alert to changes in FOB price competitiveness as global edible oil inventories build up.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast