The global corn market is at a critical juncture, with Ukrainian exporters facing mounting pressure from competitively priced US corn. As of May 5, Ukrainian corn exports reached 255 thousand tons, and while May remains active for trade, the market is bracing for a potential price drop. Ukrainian corn, though non-GMO and traditionally favored in certain markets, is currently priced significantly higher than US counterparts. Spanish, Egyptian, and Turkish buyers are increasingly shifting their preferences to US corn, which is $20–25 per ton cheaper. This price disparity poses a risk for Ukraine, threatening its share in key export markets.

Domestically, Ukrainian corn prices have shown stability, hovering at $240–243 per ton (11,400–11,500 UAH/t at ports). However, analysts warn of a "market overheating," suggesting a sharp correction could occur as early as June. Meanwhile, global weather patterns and crop progress in the US Corn Belt and Black Sea region will play a pivotal role in shaping near-term price dynamics. With large inventories in the US and aggressive export pricing strategies, the competitive landscape is shifting rapidly. Market participants should closely monitor weather developments, speculative positioning, and upcoming USDA reports for trading cues.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Ukraine: May exports at 255k tons; export pace remains strong but faces demand headwinds due to price premium.
• US: Capturing market share in Spain, Egypt, and Turkey with $20–25/ton price advantage; large inventories support aggressive export offers.
• EU: French corn offers remain stable; EU importers increasingly favor US origin.
• Turkey/Egypt: Signaling shift to US corn due to cost savings.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Latest WASDE indicates robust US ending stocks and favorable planting progress.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money has increased net long positions in CBOT corn, reflecting optimism around US export competitiveness.
• Global Stocks: US stocks are ample; Ukrainian stocks pressured by slow sales and competitive disadvantage.
• Crop Acreage: US acreage expected to expand modestly; Ukraine’s acreage stable but export margins under threat.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• US Corn Belt: Current weather is favorable for planting, with above-average soil moisture and mild temperatures supporting early crop development.
• Ukraine & Black Sea: Conditions remain stable with adequate rainfall, but June forecasts suggest potential dryness, which could impact yield prospects if prolonged.
• South America: Harvest near completion in Argentina and Brazil; no major weather disruptions reported.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor US export sales and price movements—further declines in Ukrainian premiums could trigger additional downside.
• Watch for June weather in Ukraine/Black Sea; dryness could offer price support if crop stress emerges.
• Consider short positions on Ukrainian corn if price premium persists and US offers remain aggressive.
• End users: Secure US-origin corn for near-term needs; monitor for potential price correction in Ukrainian supply.
• Speculators: Volatility expected around USDA June Acreage and WASDE reports; position accordingly.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast