📈 Sugar Market Extends Gains – Futures Approach Key Resistance Zone

On 9 May 2025, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures continued their upward momentum. The August 2025 contract closed 1.00% higher at USD 499.90/t (EUR 464.91/t). Strong buying interest lifted all active contracts by nearly 1%, yet EU spot prices remain unchanged at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg FCA, raising questions about sustainability and the disconnect between physical and futures markets.

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📊 ICE Sugar No. 5 – Closing Summary (09.05.2025)

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)

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🧭 Market Commentary

📈 Consistent Strength – Testing Resistance at USD 500/t– Momentum remains intact as funds continue to buy into short-term strength.– However, fundamentals (supply/demand balance) remain neutral at best, casting doubt on rally endurance.

🇪🇺 EU Market Still Unmoved– FCA spot quotes steady at EUR 0.56–0.59/kg, with no price concessions from producers.– Buyers continue to resist forward pricing above EUR 0.60/kg, citing falling global benchmarks.

🛍️ Retail Prices Remain Flat Across EU Markets– Retail price levels remain disconnected from industrial FCA levels, especially in Central and Eastern Europe.

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🛒 Current 1 kg Retail Sugar Prices (as of 09.05.2025)

Last verified within the last 3 days.

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (10–12 May 2025)

📌 Outlook:Rally may continue in the short term, but risks of reversal grow if fundamentals don't improve.

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📉 Global Sugar Balance Sheet (2021–2025f)

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🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

✅ Strong market performance across all contracts.❌ EU physical pricing remains static – disconnected from the world trend.📉 Consumer prices suggest no pass-through – margin compression likely.

📌 Recommendations:

• 🛒 Buyers: Push back on EU spot offers – leverage global softness.
• 📦 Sellers: Use strength to lock forward contracts – but avoid overpricing.
• 📊 Traders: Watch for reversal signals at USD 500–505/t – technical ceiling approaching.

📍 Summary: The rally continues, but sentiment and structure still do not align. Caution advised.