The global cashew market is in the midst of a transformative period, marked by surging prices, shifting supply chains, and strategic policy moves by major producing countries. India, once the uncontested leader in cashew exports, now finds itself grappling with export curbs from key African suppliers such as Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, and Tanzania. These curbs, designed to bolster domestic processing industries in Africa, have significantly tightened global raw cashew supplies. As a result, Indian processors and traders are facing higher input costs and declining export competitiveness, while Vietnam continues to capture greater market share due to its lower production costs and strategic investments. Meanwhile, global nut prices remain at record highs, driven by weather-related crop losses in almonds, pistachios, and walnuts. Despite a better cashew harvest this year, prices remain elevated, with limited relief expected for Indian consumers due to robust domestic demand. The market outlook is further complicated by weather uncertainties and ongoing trade interventions. As the world’s largest cashew consumer and processor, India is now at a crossroads—either ramp up domestic production or risk losing further ground on the global stage. Market participants should brace for continued volatility, closely monitor weather and policy developments, and adjust strategies accordingly.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India: Remains the world’s top processor and consumer but has lost export leadership due to high domestic prices and African export curbs.
• Africa: Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, and Tanzania have imposed new export restrictions and taxes to encourage local processing. This limits raw nut exports and supports higher global prices.
• Vietnam: Increasingly dominant in global trade, with competitive pricing and strong processing capacity. Indian companies with facilities in Vietnam benefit from lower costs.
• Demand: Robust in India and globally, with nuts and dry fruits in high demand for health benefits. Domestic consumption in India is rising, limiting exportable surplus.

📊 Fundamentals

• Production: Good cashew crop this year, but not enough to offset rising demand and structural supply constraints.
• Trade Policy: African export curbs (e.g., 5% export tax in Côte d’Ivoire, extended export windows) restrict supply to traditional importers like India.
• Cost Structure: High production costs in India make its exports less competitive versus Vietnam.
• Related Nuts: Adverse weather has also reduced almond and pistachio crops globally, pushing all nut prices higher.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• India: Favorable monsoon forecast for most cashew-growing coastal regions (Bengal to Gujarat). This supports production prospects for the next season, but vigilance is needed for potential late-season rainfall deficits or cyclones.
• Africa: Côte d’Ivoire and Benin report average to above-average rainfall, supporting recovery from last year’s El Niño-affected crop. Tanzania’s weather is stable, supporting normal harvest flows.
• Vietnam: Weather conditions remain supportive, but any late season heatwaves could impact kernel quality.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect continued price volatility as global supply chains adjust to African export curbs and strong demand.
• Indian buyers should secure forward contracts to hedge against further price increases, especially for premium grades.
• Exporters should monitor policy changes in Africa and consider diversifying sourcing from Vietnam or other origins.
• Processors in India must focus on efficiency and cost reduction, or consider partnerships/joint ventures in Vietnam.
• Monitor weather developments closely, especially during the upcoming monsoon and harvest periods.
• Short-term price corrections are possible if production exceeds expectations, but the long-term outlook remains firm due to structural supply constraints.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Note: Market sentiment remains bullish in the short term, with prices likely to remain at elevated levels unless a significant supply-side surprise emerges.