Wheat futures continued to weaken on Monday, hitting new contract lows in the U.S. after a bearish WASDE report and improving weather in key growing regions. Euronext futures rebounded modestly, helped by a weaker euro.

The latest WASDE report from the USDA delivered a surprise, raising global wheat ending stocks for 2024/25 by 4.51 million tons to 265.21 million tons—well above analyst expectations. This revision was driven by higher stock estimates in key exporters like the EU, US, Russia, Australia, and several Middle Eastern countries, partially offset by cuts in China and Argentina. While global stocks are still lower year-on-year, the drawdown is less severe than previously anticipated, casting a bearish shadow over the market outlook. In the US, crop progress is ahead of average, and export inspections remain robust, but the spectre of large inventories continues to weigh on sentiment. Traders are now closely watching weather developments, particularly in the US Plains and Black Sea regions, as timely rains and temperature shifts could make or break yield prospects in the weeks ahead.

📈 Prices

Spot & Export Market Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• USDA WASDE Report: Global wheat ending stocks for 2024/25 raised to 265.21 million tons (+4.51 Mt), above analyst expectations.
• Stock increases in the EU, US, Russia, Australia, and the Middle East; reductions in China and Argentina.
• Year-on-year global stock drawdown now less than 4 million tons, less severe than anticipated.
• 2025/26 outlook: Ending stocks seen slightly higher at 265.73 million tons, contingent on a record global crop of 808.52 million tons.
• US crop progress: 66% of spring wheat planted (vs. 59% avg.), 54% of winter wheat rated good/excellent (+3% w/w).
• US wheat export inspections for week ending May 8: 405,170 tons (6% higher y/y), with the Philippines and Mexico as key destinations.

📊 Fundamentals

• Currency: Weaker euro supporting Euronext wheat, while strong USD weighs on US exports.
• Speculative Positioning: Large managed money short positions persist on CBOT, increasing downside risk if weather turns favourable.
• Global Inventories: Higher-than-expected, especially in major exporters, pressuring prices.
• Export Demand: Steady, but not enough to offset burdensome stocks.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• US Plains: Favourable planting weather continues; timely rains forecast for key wheat states, supporting crop emergence and yield potential.
• Black Sea Region: Dryness persists in parts of southern Russia and eastern Ukraine, raising some concerns for yield development if rains do not materialise soon.
• Europe: Mostly favourable, but some dryness reported in southern France and Spain—monitoring required.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bearish fundamentals persist due to higher global stocks; rallies are likely capped by strong resistance near recent highs.
• Monitor weather in the Black Sea and the US Plains—any adverse developments could spark short-covering rallies.
• Exporters: Consider selling into strength on Euronext if the euro remains weak.
• Importers: Take advantage of current price weakness to secure forward coverage.
• Speculators: Maintain a cautious stance; large short positions could unwind quickly if weather risks intensify.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast