The global walnut market is undergoing significant transformation, with India striving to bridge the gap between domestic demand and supply by importing high-yielding walnut varieties and planting material. Despite a history of stable production, India’s output remains dwarfed by global leaders like China, whose production has soared to 1.2 million tonnes compared to India’s stagnant 25,000 tonnes. This disparity is driving new policies and investment in high-quality saplings and modern cultivation techniques. The Nuts and Dry Fruits Council of India (NDFC) is at the forefront, aiming to boost self-sufficiency and producer incomes by encouraging both imports and domestic expansion. Meanwhile, global walnut prices are reacting to shifting supply chains, speculative activity, and weather risks in key producing regions. Recent price movements show moderate gains across most origins, with Iranian grades seeing the sharpest increases. As India embarks on its ambitious expansion, all eyes are on the interplay between domestic policy, international trade, and climatic conditions that could shape the market’s trajectory in the months ahead.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India: Domestic demand continues to outpace production, prompting imports of high-yielding walnut varieties and planting material. Production is concentrated in Jammu & Kashmir (25,000 tonnes), with expansion efforts in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
• China: World’s top producer, output now at 1.2 million tonnes (up 3x since 2010), dominating global exports and influencing international prices.
• USA: Major exporter, particularly to Europe and Asia, with stable production and competitive pricing for organic grades.
• Iran: Notable price surge for all grades, suggesting tightening supply or increased demand in the region.

📊 Fundamentals

• Policy: India’s NDFC is intensifying efforts to import high-yield planting material. Government support for importation under quarantine is expected to boost future output.
• Production Trends: Global walnut production has tripled since 2010. In contrast, India’s production is stagnant, highlighting the necessity for new investment and technology.
• Inventories: Global inventories are generally adequate, but certain origins (Iran) show signs of tightening stocks, reflected in recent price jumps.
• Speculative Positioning: Bullish sentiment in Iranian grades may indicate speculative buying amid supply concerns.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• India (Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand): Favorable temperatures and normal rainfall forecast for the next 10 days, supporting ongoing flowering and fruit set. No major frost or hail risk detected.
• China (Key producing provinces): Mild weather and adequate moisture expected, supporting healthy crop development.
• USA (California): Slightly above-average temperatures with scattered showers, generally positive for walnut development.
• Iran: Warm and dry conditions could limit yields if prolonged, contributing to recent price gains.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📌 Short-term: Iranian grades likely to remain firm or rise further if supply remains tight; monitor for further weather disruptions.
• 📌 Medium-term: India’s import of high-yielding saplings will not impact supply in 2025, but could increase availability from 2027 onwards.
• 📌 Buyers: Secure forward contracts, particularly for premium and organic grades, as bullish sentiment in Iran and India may spread.
• 📌 Sellers: Consider gradual release of stocks in Iran to capitalize on current price momentum.
• 📌 Watch: Policy changes in India, weather in Iran and China, and global freight costs.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast