The global cumin market is currently experiencing a pronounced downturn, with prices in key Indian mandis such as Unjha and Merta falling sharply. This decline is primarily driven by sluggish demand, reduced arrivals, and significant disruptions in export activity due to escalating geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan. Exporters have notably scaled back their buying, further dampening market sentiment. At Unjha, a key benchmark for cumin pricing, export-quality cumin is quoted at Rs 3,600–3,800 per 20 kg, while premium varieties have also registered notable declines. The situation is aggravated by reports of trader defaults in Saurashtra, which has made local participants increasingly cautious and led to limited, need-based purchases. In Rajasthan, similar bearish trends are evident, with prices dropping and arrivals increasing, signaling continued selling pressure. Until there is a resolution in the geopolitical standoff and a rebound in export demand, the cumin market is expected to remain subdued. Domestic traders are advised to closely monitor developments on both the geopolitical and default fronts for directional cues.

Offers:

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India: Arrivals in Gujarat's Unjha mandi dropped to 6,000 bags (from 7,000), yet prices tumbled due to weak demand and high supply overhang. Rajasthan arrivals increased to 4,500 bags, adding to selling pressure.
• Export Activity: Significant slowdown in exports due to India-Pakistan tensions. Exporters are hesitant, further dampening prices.
• Trader Defaults: Reports from Saurashtra of trader defaults have led to increased caution among local buyers, curbing aggressive purchases.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA & Crop Reports: No major USDA updates for cumin, but local reports indicate a bearish outlook due to oversupply and export bottlenecks.
• Speculative Positioning: Bearish, with traders opting for need-based buying only.
• Inventories: Building up in Indian mandis as exports slow, while Middle Eastern and North African origins remain steady.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Gujarat/Rajasthan: Current weather is stable with no immediate threats to the standing crop. However, any unseasonal rainfall could impact late-harvested cumin.
• Iran/Egypt: Weather conditions are normal for this time of year, supporting steady supply from these regions.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bearish short-term outlook for Indian cumin due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and slow export demand.
• Traders should avoid aggressive buying and focus on need-based procurement.
• Monitor developments on India-Pakistan relations and trader default cases in Saurashtra closely.
• Exporters may look to diversify sourcing from Iran and Egypt, where prices are firm but stable.
• Weather remains a minor risk factor but should be watched for any late-season disruptions.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast