The global coffee market is experiencing a period of unprecedented volatility and record-high prices, driven largely by constrained supplies and robust international demand. In Vietnam, the world's leading Robusta exporter, coffee export values have soared despite a notable drop in production. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Vietnamese coffee exports in April 2025 totaled 167,000 tons, valued at $966 million. Over the first four months of the year, total exports reached 663,000 tons—a 10% decrease in volume but a remarkable 51% increase in value compared to the same period in 2024, totaling nearly $3.8 billion. This surge is attributed to the average export price reaching $5,698/ton, a 67.5% year-on-year increase, with Robusta prices hitting record highs. Key European markets, especially Germany, Italy, and Spain, have significantly increased their imports, reflecting shifting global trade patterns. Meanwhile, Brazil, another coffee powerhouse, reported a steep 31.9% year-on-year decline in green coffee exports in April 2025, further tightening global supply. Weather disruptions, strategic stockholding by farmers, and delayed harvests in key origins are all contributing to the current bullish market sentiment. As a result, both Robusta and Arabica futures on major exchanges are trading at historic levels, and the outlook remains firm as weather and logistical uncertainties persist.

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📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Vietnam: 663,000 tons exported Jan-Apr 2025 (-10% y/y), but value up 51% to $3.8 billion.
• Brazil: Green coffee exports in April 2025 down 31.9% y/y to 2.88 million bags.
• Europe: Germany (17% share), Italy (8.4%), and Spain (7.3%) are the top importers of Vietnamese coffee, with strong double-digit growth.
• Global: Tightening inventories, delayed harvests, and strategic stockholding by farmers are supporting prices.

📊 Fundamentals

• Production: Down in both Vietnam and Brazil due to adverse weather (drought, heatwaves).
• Inventories: Global stocks are at multi-year lows; ICE certified stocks remain below historical averages.
• Speculative Positioning: Funds and speculators have increased net long positions, reflecting strong bullish sentiment.
• Currency: VND stability supports local prices; USD strength may weigh on import demand in some markets.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Vietnam (Central Highlands): Recent reports indicate persistent dryness and above-average temperatures, raising concerns about flowering and cherry development for the next crop.
• Brazil (Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo): Sporadic rains but generally below-average precipitation. Risk of further yield reductions if dry spell continues.
• Forecast Impact: Weather remains the primary risk factor—continued dryness could further tighten supply and support prices.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect high volatility as weather and supply news drive short-term moves.
• Producers: Consider selling into current strength, but hold some stock for potential further rallies if weather risks persist.
• Buyers: Secure forward contracts to lock in supply; consider price risk management strategies (hedging).
• Speculators: Momentum remains bullish, but be alert for corrections if harvests improve or speculative froth unwinds.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

📊 View interactive price chart