Wheat Futures Steady in Paris, Slight Rebound in Chicago – Kansas Tour Raises Mixed Outlooks

After touching contract lows on Monday, U.S. wheat futures edged higher on Tuesday, driven by short-covering and weather risks in China. In Europe, Euronext futures remained stable, with traders hoping for fresh export demand amid ongoing political friction.

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📊 1. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Weekly Trends

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🌍 2. Key Market Drivers

🔹 US Futures Rebound Slightly

• Futures at the CBOT hit new contract lows on Monday but rebounded slightly on Tuesday due to short-covering by funds.
• USDA’s WASDE report forecast higher U.S. ending stocks, putting downward pressure on futures.

🔹 Kansas Crop Tour Day 1 Results

• Average yield estimated at 50.5 bu/ac, above the 5-year average (45.1 bu/ac).
• Concerns about Wheat Curl Mite and virus pressure (WSMV, TriMV) in parts of Kansas.
• Tour ends Thursday and is closely watched by global buyers.

🔹 EU Market Stable

• Euronext futures held ground thanks to a weaker euro, though the September contract was flat.
• Traders monitor whether low prices can revive demand.
• Algeria shows buying interest, but French exports remain uncertain due to diplomatic friction.

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🚢 3. Export & Trade Dynamics

🔹 EU Exports Lagging

• EU soft wheat exports YTD: 18.3 Mio t (▼ 33% YoY)
• Germany’s exports: 2.323 Mio t (+130,000 t WoW)
• Algeria: Potential buyer, but France faces diplomatic headwinds
• U.S. Gulf wheat: Competitive on price

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🔬 4. Crop Conditions & Weather Update

🇺🇸 USA

• Spring wheat: Strong planting progress & germination
• Winter wheat: 54% rated good/excellent (+3 pts WoW)
• Drought areas: Only 23% of U.S. wheat under drought (▼ 10 pts WoW)

🇨🇳 China

• Henan Province: Heatwave alert issued
• 🌡️ Forecast: >35°C from May 11–13
• Could impact national production (Henan = ~⅓ of national wheat output)

🇪🇺 Europe

• Mild, dry weather continues in central and northern Europe
• Moisture stress could emerge if no rain by late May

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📉 5. Speculative Positioning

📌 Funds remain heavily short, especially in Paris – any weather threat could trigger covering rallies.

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🔮 6. Price Forecast (Next 3 Days)

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📌 7. Summary & Recommendations

📍 Key Points

• WASDE added bearish pressure via higher stocks
• Kansas Crop Tour shows above-average yields, but virus risk persists
• Export demand remains weak in the EU, but could improve if Algeria buys
• The weather in China adds a possible bullish wildcard

✅ Actionable Insight

• Sellers: Consider light hedging into any weather-driven bounce
• Buyers: Take advantage of current lows to secure Q3 needs
• Traders: Monitor Wheat Tour results & Chinese demand signals