Apricot Market Faces Crisis: Climate Shocks Drive Prices to Record Highs

The global apricot market is at a critical juncture, with Turkish production—especially from Malatya, the world's apricot capital—suffering unprecedented setbacks. Recent frosts have devastated large swathes of orchards, and as summer nears, drought conditions are intensifying, threatening further reductions in yield. Farmers, already reeling from last year's earthquake and ongoing climate volatility, are voicing their desperation on social media, calling for urgent state support to survive the next 12 months.

The water level at the Chad Dam, a vital irrigation source, is nearing historic lows, raising fears that irrigation will be insufficient during the crucial spring and summer months. In the domestic market, the price of dried apricots has soared to 22.59 Euros (980 TL) per kilogram, with export prices highly volatile and difficult to pin down. These supply-side shocks are expected to push prices even higher in both domestic and international markets, with consumers and traders bracing for further volatility. Market participants should closely monitor weather patterns and government responses, as these will be pivotal in shaping the supply outlook and price trajectory in the coming months.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Turkey: Severe frost and drought in Malatya threaten a significant share of the 2025 crop. Water shortages may further reduce yields.
• Iran: Prices are rising, but not as sharply as in Turkey. Iranian supply may partially offset Turkish losses, but quality and volume are limited.
• Global Demand: Remains robust, especially in Europe and the Middle East. Exporters are struggling to quote prices amid uncertainty.
• Inventories: Stocks are tightening rapidly. Domestic Turkish stocks are being depleted as buyers rush to secure supply.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Frost and drought have slashed Turkish apricot output forecasts for 2025 by 30–50%.
• Malatya’s recovery from last year’s earthquake remains incomplete, further constraining supply.
• Farmers are calling for urgent state intervention to avoid mass bankruptcies.
• Speculators are entering the market, driving prices higher amid expectations of further shortages.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Malatya, Turkey: Persistent drought, high temperatures, and low dam levels are expected for the next two weeks. No significant rainfall is forecast, exacerbating water stress during critical fruit development stages.
• Iran: Weather conditions are stable but warmer than average, leading to a slightly earlier harvest.
• Europe: No major weather disruptions reported in importing countries.

Impact: Continued drought in Malatya is likely to further lower yields and quality, supporting high prices through the summer and into the new marketing year.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📈 Bullish bias: Prices are expected to remain elevated due to sharp supply cuts in Turkey and ongoing weather risks.
• 🔒 Secure contracts early: Buyers should lock in supply as soon as possible; spot market prices may spike further.
• 🚚 Monitor logistics: Earthquake recovery in Malatya may disrupt shipments, causing delays and higher transport costs.
• 📊 Watch for government intervention: State support or export restrictions could impact market dynamics and pricing.
• 🌦️ Track weather updates: Any rainfall or relief in drought conditions could shift market sentiment quickly.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast