Mixed Corn Market – Nearby Contract Recovers, New Crop Remains Under Pressure
➡ Mixed Corn Market – Nearby Contract Recovers, New Crop Remains Under Pressure
Corn futures ended mostly lower on Wednesday, with only the July delivery posting modest gains. Weather outlooks and expectations for export data and Ukraine trade policy continue to weigh on sentiment.
The U.S. corn market remained divided between old crop stability and pressure on new crop contracts. Technical support helped July futures recover slightly, while longer maturities slipped further. In Europe, Euronext futures rose moderately across the curve, supported by technical buying and external market stabilisation.
Corn futures ended mostly lower on Wednesday, with only the July delivery posting modest gains. Weather outlooks and expectations for export data and Ukraine trade policy continue to weigh on sentiment.
The U.S. corn market remained divided between old crop stability and pressure on new crop contracts. Technical support helped July futures recover slightly, while longer maturities slipped further. In Europe, Euronext futures rose moderately across the curve, supported by technical buying and external market stabilisation.
📈 Market Situation & Price Development
🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)
➡ July contracts held technical support, but later maturities remain weak.🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)
➡ Paris contracts posted a strong recovery after recent losses.🔍 Key Market Drivers
- 🌧 U.S. Weather Outlook:
- A rain forecast from the Northern Plains to the eastern Corn Belt
- May slow planting slightly, but overall crop conditions remain favourable
- Market balancing between short-term moisture and long-term progress
- 🇪🇺 Ukraine Trade Uncertainty:
- The EU may temporarily return to pre-war trade rules with Ukraine
- Includes reinstating tariff quotas for corn
- Decision needed by June 5 to avoid trade disruption
- 🛢 EIA Weekly Ethanol Report (May 9):
- Production: ↓ 27,000 bpd → 993,000 bpd (lowest since Sept)
- Stocks: ↑ 254,000 bbl → 25.445 million bbl
- Refinery input: ↑ 43,000 bpd → 929,000 bpd
- Exports dropped slightly → no short-term market impact
- 📦 USDA Export Sales (expected May 16):
- Old crop: 0.9–1.5 million t
- New crop: 350,000–600,000 t
- Data will help gauge short-term demand resilience
☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)
🌍 Corn Market Snapshot (Mid-May)
💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment
- ⚖️ Short-term stabilisation is possible as July holds key levels
- 🌧 Weather may support old crop, but planting pace stays strong
- 📊 Export data could trigger a technical bounce or breakdown
- Stay cautious until export figures confirm demand trends
- Watch technical resistance at 448 ct/bu (CBOT Jul)
- Consider Paris' long positioning if EU tariffs shift
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (May 16–18)
