The global pumpkin seed market is entering a period of heightened uncertainty. Prices have been on an upward trajectory, but the underlying dynamics are shifting rapidly. Major changes in China's agricultural landscape are at the forefront: up to 50% of Chinese farmers are reportedly moving away from pumpkin cultivation in response to evolving environmental pressures and shifting market demand. This strategic switch is already impacting the market, with many packers unable to offer forward contracts for the new crop—an unusual situation that underscores the prevailing market indecisiveness.

Despite these supply-side concerns, the market is currently grappling with a significant carryover from last season—approximately 150,000 tons, twice the volume of the previous year. This surplus has created a buffer, but it also raises questions about demand resilience and future price direction. If consumption remains lackluster, the market could see some price relief as the new crop approaches. However, all eyes are on the upcoming harvest, weather conditions, and the next USDA and Chinese agricultural updates to gauge the true state of supply and demand. Stakeholders should stay alert and agile as market fundamentals are poised for further shifts in the coming weeks.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Chinese farmer exodus: Up to 50% switching away from pumpkin, sharply reducing new crop planting intentions.
• Carryover stocks: Estimated at 150,000 tons, double last year, cushioning immediate supply but raising questions about demand.
• Packing/forward contracts: Many packers not offering new crop contracts, signaling supply uncertainty and risk aversion.
• Demand trends: Soft to stagnant; if this persists, could pressure prices lower as new crop nears.
• Global context: China remains the dominant exporter; shifts there have outsized impact worldwide.

📊 Fundamentals

• Production: 2024/25 Chinese acreage sharply down, but large carryover may offset immediate shortfall.
• Stocks: Global stocks high due to last year's surplus; importers have some buffer.
• Speculative activity: Low; market participants remain cautious amid uncertain outlook.
• Comparison to last report: Previous report highlighted firming prices and strong demand; current surplus and acreage shifts now add downside risks.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• North China: Recent weather has been mixed, with some regions experiencing above-average rainfall and cooler-than-normal temperatures. This could delay planting and affect initial crop development.
• Forecast (next 2 weeks): Conditions expected to stabilize, but any further disruptions could reduce yields further, compounding supply risks.
• Impact: Watch for updates on precipitation and temperature trends in key pumpkin-producing provinces (Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Jilin).

🌎 Global Production & Stocks

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• ⚠️ Monitor demand trends closely: If demand remains weak, prices may soften further as new crop approaches.
• ⏳ Wait for June figures: More precise data on acreage and stocks will clarify the outlook.
• 🤝 Secure supply if risk-averse: Those with urgent needs may wish to lock in contracts now, but at a premium.
• 📉 Price risk: Downside risk increases if demand does not recover; upside risk if weather disrupts new crop or if demand rebounds unexpectedly.
• 🌦️ Watch weather in North China: Any adverse conditions could tighten supply further.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast