CBOT Corn Split Continues – Nearby Gains on Exports, New Crop Weighed Down by Brazil
➡ CBOT Corn Split Continues – Nearby Gains on Exports, New Crop Weighed Down by Brazil
Old crop corn contracts rose for a third day on Thursday, supported by strong export demand. Meanwhile, new crop futures remained under pressure from improving crop prospects in the U.S. and Brazil. Euronext futures followed the mixed pattern, with early delivery gaining.
The U.S. corn market remains divided between short-term demand strength and long-term supply fears. While nearby contracts were boosted by a 20-week high in export sales, new crop prices retreated due to excellent U.S. planting weather and Brazil’s upgraded harvest estimates. Euronext futures showed similar divergence, with modest strength in early delivery positions.
Old crop corn contracts rose for a third day on Thursday, supported by strong export demand. Meanwhile, new crop futures remained under pressure from improving crop prospects in the U.S. and Brazil. Euronext futures followed the mixed pattern, with early delivery gaining.
The U.S. corn market remains divided between short-term demand strength and long-term supply fears. While nearby contracts were boosted by a 20-week high in export sales, new crop prices retreated due to excellent U.S. planting weather and Brazil’s upgraded harvest estimates. Euronext futures showed similar divergence, with modest strength in early delivery positions.
📈 Market Situation & Price Development
🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)
➡ July supported by short covering and strong exports; new crop still bearish.🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)
➡ Paris contracts stable to higher, supported by technical buying.🔍 Key Market Drivers
- 🚢 U.S. Export Sales (USDA, May 16):
- Old crop: 1.677 million t (vs. 0.9–1.5 Mt est.)
- New crop: 508,928 t (top of 350,000–600,000 t range)
- Old crop sales hit a 20-week high, +100% YoY
- 🇰🇷 South Korea (603,300 t), 🇲🇽 Mexico (314,200 t), 🇯🇵 Japan (208,000 t) led the old crop
- 🇲🇽 Mexico bought 467,100 t of new crop – strongest week YTD
- 🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Outlook (Conab, May):
- Safrinha (second crop): 99.8 Mt, +11% YoY
- Total 2024/25 corn output: 126.87 Mt (↑ from 124.74 Mt in April)
- Domestic demand rising: 89.3 Mt (↑ 6.3%) due to higher ethanol use
- Exports held steady at 34 Mt
- 📉 New Crop Under Pressure:
- Excellent U.S. planting pace
- Rising South American output
- Fund selling adds to weakness
☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)
🌍 Corn Market Snapshot (Mid-May)
💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment
- 🔼 Old crop support from demand, especially Mexican buying
- 🔻 New crop remains vulnerable to planting/weather/fund flow
- ⚖️ The market is still searching for direction between strong sales and strong supply
- Favour old crop contracts for short-term upside
- Hedge or avoid long exposure on the new crop
- Monitor planting data and fund flows early next week