The global apricot market is at a pivotal crossroads as a catastrophic frost event in Turkey—the world’s largest apricot producer—has effectively wiped out the 2025 crop. This unprecedented weather calamity, which struck on April 11th with temperatures plunging to -15°C and heavy snowfall during the critical bloom and fruit-setting period, is expected to result in near-total crop loss for the season. The fallout is already reverberating through export figures, with April 2025 shipments dropping to 3,451 tons, down sharply from 4,108 tons a year ago. Yet, year-to-date exports from January to April have shown resilience, up 18% over the same period last year, as exporters rushed to fulfill contracts before the supply crunch fully materialized.

With Turkey’s remaining stocks estimated at just 50,000 tons—much of it already committed—market participants face acute uncertainty about future availability. Prices have already soared, with local offers in Turkey ranging from $10,000 to $11,000 per ton, depending on grade and quality, and European spot prices climbing steadily. As trading activity slows and stocks dwindle, the market is bracing for further volatility and potentially record-high prices. The situation is compounded by strong global demand and limited alternatives from other origins, setting the stage for a historic supply-driven rally in apricot prices. Market participants must act swiftly to secure remaining stocks or risk being priced out of the market in the months ahead.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Turkey’s 2025 crop is near total loss due to April frost; no significant new supply expected until 2026.
• Remaining Turkish stocks: ~50,000 tons (much already committed).
• April 2025 exports: 3,451 tons (down from 4,108 tons in April 2024).
• Jan-Apr 2025 cumulative exports: 65,667 tons (+18% YoY).
• Global demand remains strong, with limited alternatives from Iran and Central Asia.
• Speculative buying and forward contracting increasing as buyers scramble for remaining stocks.

📊 Fundamentals

• Weather: Severe frost (-15°C, heavy snow) destroyed blossoms and developing fruit in Turkey’s main apricot regions.
• Stocks: Uncertainty over actual available stocks due to forward commitments and possible contract defaults.
• Production: Iran and other origins cannot fully compensate for the Turkish shortfall; global supply extremely tight.
• Price action: Prices in Turkey have surged to $10,000–$11,000/ton for remaining lots; European spot prices rising rapidly.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Turkey (Malatya, main apricot region): No recovery possible for 2025; orchards have suffered irreversible damage.
• Forecast (next 7 days): Mild, stable weather, but damage already done. No new frost events expected.
• Iran/Central Asia: Weather conditions favorable; modest crop expected, but exportable surplus limited.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📌 Secure remaining stocks immediately: Prices are set to rise further as availability collapses.
• 📌 Monitor contract fulfillment: Expect possible defaults or renegotiations on forward contracts.
• 📌 Explore alternative origins: Limited volumes from Iran and Central Asia may offer some relief but at higher prices.
• 📌 Hedge positions: Use available financial instruments to hedge against further price spikes.
• 📌 Prepare for record-high prices: End-users should budget for significantly increased costs through 2025.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast