The global wheat market is navigating a period of heightened volatility, with Ukraine's export pace notably trailing last season and weather uncertainties casting a shadow over key producing regions. As of mid-May 2025, Ukraine—one of the world's critical wheat exporters—has shipped 14.467 million tons of wheat since the start of the 2024/25 marketing year, a significant drop from the previous year's pace. Total grain and legume exports from Ukraine are also down, with May volumes lagging behind 2024 levels. This slowdown is attributed to ongoing logistical challenges, infrastructure disruptions, and cautious international buying amid macroeconomic uncertainties. Meanwhile, wheat prices across major global exchanges reflect both the supply concerns from the Black Sea and speculative repositioning on the back of shifting weather forecasts. In the US and EU, wheat futures have shown mixed trends as traders weigh strong old-crop demand against prospects for the new harvest. Weather remains a pivotal driver: dryness in parts of the US Plains and southern Russia is raising yield risks, while parts of Western Europe have enjoyed more favorable conditions. The coming weeks will be crucial as the Northern Hemisphere's harvest approaches and global buyers adjust their procurement strategies.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Ukraine: 14.467 million tons wheat exported in 2024/25 (down from 17.3 million tons last year by this date), overall grain exports lagging by ~7.15 million tons YoY.
• US: Strong old-crop export demand; new-crop planting progress slightly behind average due to dry conditions in the Plains.
• EU: French wheat crop in good condition, but some dryness in Eastern Europe may limit yields.
• Russia: Export pace remains robust, but weather risks are emerging in the south.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Global ending stocks projected lower for 2024/25, especially in major exporters.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money net long in wheat futures has increased, reflecting weather risk premium.
• Inventories: Global wheat stocks-to-use ratio remains tight, supporting price floors.
• Ukrainian Flour Exports: 57.6 thousand tons of wheat flour exported so far, with May shipments steady.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Ukraine: Recent rains have improved soil moisture in central and western regions, but eastern areas remain dry. Crop conditions are mixed, with yield potential slightly below last year.
• US Plains: Persistent dryness in Kansas and Oklahoma; limited rainfall forecast may stress heading wheat.
• Russia (South): Heat and dryness are raising concerns for winter wheat yields in key exporting oblasts.
• France: Favorable moisture and mild temperatures support good crop development.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers: Consider forward coverage for late summer and early autumn needs, as weather risks could tighten supply further.
• Sellers: Take advantage of price rallies to hedge new-crop positions, especially if weather remains supportive.
• Speculators: Monitor US Plains and Black Sea weather closely; short-term volatility likely to persist.
• Risk: Watch for geopolitical developments around Black Sea shipping corridors.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Data sources: Ukrainian Ministry of Agrarian Policy, USDA, CBOT, Euronext, weather models (GFS/ECMWF), and market offers.