The global soybean market is entering a pivotal phase, as a notable undervaluation relative to corn points to a potential trend reversal. Analysts from the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council highlight that the current soybean-to-corn price ratio, now at 2-2.2, is historically linked with subsequent rises in soybean prices. This undervaluation is already manifesting in the U.S. futures market, where early signs of a bullish reversal are emerging. In Ukraine, shifting crop patterns—with farmers favoring corn over soybeans—could further tighten supply, setting the stage for upward price momentum. Domestically, Ukrainian processors are offering 17,700–18,000 UAH/ton for small lots, outpacing port prices, though expectations are for port prices to rebound above $400/ton by the end of May. Internationally, soybean prices remain under pressure but are showing signs of stabilization, with market participants increasingly favoring high-liquidity processing channels. Weather conditions in key growing regions and evolving global acreage decisions are poised to play a significant role in shaping near-term supply and demand. As we move into a transformative period for the soybean market, both short- and medium-term outlooks suggest substantial upside potential, particularly if weather risks or further acreage reductions materialize.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• US: Signs of trend reversal in futures as price ratio to corn signals undervaluation.
• Ukraine: Soybean acreage declining in favor of corn; domestic processors paying premiums over ports.
• China: Demand remains robust but prices soft amid ample stocks and weak export demand.
• India: Prices under pressure due to local supply and subdued export activity.
• Global: Potential tightening of supply in coming seasons as acreage shifts and weather risks loom.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Indicate lower soybean plantings in the US and Ukraine for the current season.
• Crop Acreage: Ukrainian farmers shifting to corn, reducing soybean sowings.
• Inventories: Global stocks remain comfortable but could tighten if weather issues arise.
• Speculative Positioning: Net short positions on soybeans are declining, supporting a bullish reversal scenario.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• US Midwest: Forecasts show above-average precipitation and mild temperatures, generally favorable for crop emergence but could delay planting in some areas.
• Ukraine & Black Sea: Mixed conditions, with some regions experiencing dryness that could impact yields if prolonged.
• Brazil & Argentina: Post-harvest period; weather neutral for now, but watch for early signs of El Niño/La Niña impacts on next planting season.

🌐 Production & Stock Comparison

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term: Expect increased volatility and potential for price rebound, especially in US and Ukrainian markets.
• Medium-term: Monitor weather developments in the US and Ukraine; bullish if adverse conditions persist.
• Procurement: Favor domestic processing channels in Ukraine for better margins; watch for port price recovery.
• Producers: Consider holding stocks if possible to benefit from anticipated price increases by late May/June.
• Traders: Watch soybean-to-corn price ratio as a leading indicator for further market moves.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast