The sunflower market is undergoing a significant transformation, with Kazakhstan emerging as a new powerhouse on the global stage. Over the past three years, Kazakhstan has dramatically increased its sunflower oil production by 2.5 times and exports by an impressive 4.8 times. This growth has propelled the country into the world's top 10 sunflower oil exporters, ranking eighth in 2024. At the same time, imports of packaged oil have declined by 11%, indicating robust domestic supply and growing self-sufficiency. The country's export revenue from sunflower oil, meal, and cake reached $562 million last season, with ambitious plans to double this to $1 billion annually in the coming years. This shift is driven by a strategic pivot from wheat to more profitable oilseeds, particularly sunflower, and is supported by government-backed trade missions and export acceleration programs. Kazakhstan’s growing influence is not limited to oil; the country is now among the top three suppliers of sunflower meal to the EU, catering to the livestock industry across dozens of countries. As Kazakhstan expands its export reach to Central Asia, China, and potentially the Middle East, global sunflower market dynamics are poised for further change. This report explores the latest price trends, supply and demand drivers, and what lies ahead for traders and producers in this rapidly evolving sector.

📈 Prices: Latest Market Overview

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Kazakhstan’s Expansion: Sunflower oil production up 2.5x; exports up 4.8x in 3 years.
• EU Demand: Kazakhstan now a top-3 supplier of sunflower meal to the EU, supporting livestock feed markets.
• Shift in Crop Priorities: More acreage moving from wheat to sunflower and other oilseeds in Kazakhstan, boosting supply prospects.
• Export Programs: Government incentives and trade missions are accelerating export growth and market diversification.
• Regional Export Focus: Major export destinations include Central Asia, China, and future plans for the Middle East.
• Domestic Stability: Kazakhstan’s domestic market is now fully supplied, reducing import dependency and stabilizing prices.
• Global Competition: Ukraine and Russia remain the largest sunflower oil exporters, but Kazakhstan’s rapid rise is reshaping regional trade flows.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Data

• Export Revenue: $562 million in 2024, with a target of $1 billion annually in coming years.
• Production Growth: Kazakhstan’s sunflower oil output up 2.5x since 2021.
• Import Decline: Packaged oil imports down 11%, reflecting stronger domestic processing.
• Global Ranking: 8th largest sunflower oil exporter in 2024.
• EU Market Share: Among top 3 for sunflower meal exports to EU.

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

• Kazakhstan: Recent weather has been favorable, with adequate soil moisture and moderate spring temperatures supporting sunflower planting and early growth. No major droughts or frosts reported.
• Ukraine: Variable rainfall; central and eastern regions received good precipitation, while the south remains slightly drier than average. Crop emergence is on track but will need timely rains in June.
• Russia: Southern regions have experienced some dryness, but recent showers have improved conditions. Planting progress is ahead of last year.
• Argentina: Off-season; planting will begin later in the year.

Weather Impact: If current trends persist, yield prospects remain positive for Kazakhstan and Ukraine, supporting ample supply for the 2025 marketing year.

🔎 Global Production & Stock Comparison

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers: Take advantage of firming prices in Black Sea and Central Asian markets; consider forward sales as demand from China and the EU remains robust.
• Exporters: Leverage Kazakhstan’s export incentives and explore new markets in the Middle East.
• Buyers: Monitor weather in Ukraine and Russia; short-term supply is stable but watch for June rainfall deficits.
• Speculators: Market sentiment is steady-to-firm; consider long positions in Kazakhstan-origin sunflower oil and meal.
• Risk: Geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea and logistical issues could cause short-term volatility.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast