The global lentils market is at a pivotal juncture as 2025 unfolds, with India—the world's largest pulses importer—significantly reducing its overseas procurement of lentils. After a record surge in pulses imports last fiscal year, the latest data reveals a sharp 23.5% drop in the value of India’s April 2025 pulses imports, led by a notable decline in both yellow pea and lentil volumes. This contraction is largely attributed to improved domestic supply, government interventions, and the anticipation of an above-normal monsoon, which is expected to further bolster domestic production. Lentil imports into India fell to 36,007 tonnes in April 2025, down from 64,583 tonnes a year earlier, and annual imports dropped to 1.286 million tonnes from 1.676 million tonnes in FY2023-24. Meanwhile, prices for Canadian and Chinese lentils remain stable to slightly firmer, reflecting cautious optimism among exporters and traders. Market sentiment is being shaped by India’s shifting import policies, evolving weather outlooks, and robust inventory levels in key producing nations. As the world’s largest consumer signals greater self-sufficiency, global lentil trade flows and price dynamics are poised for recalibration in the coming months.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India: April 2025 lentil imports dropped to 36,007 tonnes (from 64,583 tonnes YoY); full-year imports fell to 1.286 million tonnes (from 1.676 million tonnes).
• Global: India’s pulses imports overall surged to 6.705 million tonnes in 2024-25 (+52.2% YoY), but lentils bucked the trend with lower volumes.
• Drivers: Improved Indian domestic availability, above-normal monsoon forecast, and high opening stocks are suppressing import demand.
• Exporters: Canada and Australia remain dominant suppliers; China is a growing source for green lentils.

📊 Fundamentals

• India’s pulses import bill hit $5.4 billion in FY2024-25, up from $3.74 billion, but lentil imports declined both in value and volume.
• Yellow peas (a chana substitute) saw a steep drop in April but doubled for the year due to a temporary duty-free window (closed May 31, 2025).
• Tur and urad imports increased and benefit from a duty-free window until March 2026.
• Desi chickpea and tur imports rose sharply, reflecting shifting demand within India’s pulses market.
• Canadian lentil prices remain stable as exportable surpluses meet global demand; Chinese prices slightly softer due to ample stocks.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• India: The India Meteorological Department forecasts an above-normal monsoon for 2025, which is expected to boost kharif and rabi pulses output, including lentils.
• Canada: Prairie weather has been largely favorable, with adequate soil moisture in Saskatchewan and Manitoba supporting good early crop establishment. No major frost or drought events reported to date.
• Australia: Sowing conditions for lentils are reported as normal, with sufficient rainfall in Victoria and South Australia.

Impact: Favorable weather in major producing regions supports the outlook for ample supplies and stable prices through the next quarter.

🌎 Global Production & Stocks

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Indian import demand for lentils likely to remain subdued through 2025 amid improved domestic production and ample stocks.
• Canadian and Australian exporters should expect softer demand from India but may see stable opportunities in other Asian and Middle Eastern markets.
• Watch for potential price firming if Indian monsoon fails or if global weather shocks occur.
• Monitor Indian government import policies, especially any changes to duty structures or quotas.
• Short-term: Prices expected to remain stable; medium-term: Weather and policy risks could trigger volatility.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Key watch: Indian monsoon progress and government policy changes will be critical for price direction in the months ahead.