Soybeans End Week Flat – Biofuel Policy Still Unclear, China Hopes Remain
Soybeans End Week Flat – Biofuel Policy Still Unclear, China Hopes Remain
Soybeans End Week Flat – Biofuel Policy Still Unclear, China Hopes RemainSoybeans closed the week with marginal losses, caught between collapsing vegetable oil markets and renewed optimism over a potential trade agreement with China.
📊 Market Situation & Price Development
On Friday, the July 2025 soybean contract at the CBOT fell by 1.25 ct to 1,050.00 ct/bu (~346 EUR/t). This left a weekly loss of just 1.75 ct or –0.2%, following a volatile week driven by sharp drops in soyoil.🌍 Key Market Drivers
- Soy Oil Pressure ContinuesSoyoil futures extended losses Friday due to ongoing uncertainty over the EPA’s biodiesel blending targets. Market sentiment remains fragile.
- China Trade HopesOptimism about a potential agreement between the U.S. and China helped soybeans stabilise. Traders anticipate improved U.S. export activity in late summer.
- Speculators Increase Net LongsCFTC data showed that managed money increased net-long positions by 16,537 contracts, bringing the total to 38,407 – the highest level in over two months.
- US/Canada Market DivergenceWhile the U.S. market paused, Canadian canola advanced strongly – indicating relative strength in North American oilseeds beyond soyoil volatility.
💼 Trading Strategy & Market Outlook
The market is caught between weak soyoil prices and stable soybean export demand expectations.Strategy:– Stay neutral-to-bullish as long as prices hold above 1,045 ct– Monitor EPA decision and U.S.–China trade headlines– Use dips to enter long positions if soyoil stabilises