📉 Turkish Hazelnut Market – Market Sceptical of Official Forecast, Speculation Remains High

📍 The official INC forecast of 609,000 MT continues to face heavy scepticism. Although prices eased slightly following the announcement, market actors remain wary, especially due to quality concerns and the behaviour of farmers and exporters. The market is entering a speculative transition period ahead of the new harvest, with wide pricing ranges and inconsistent offers across grades and product forms.

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📊 Market Overview: Prices & Developments

📈 Export prices remain under pressure due to market indecision.💱 TRY/EUR exchange rate stable, no FX-related effects.

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🌍 Market Drivers & Developments

🔍 INC Crop Forecast Sparks Controversy

• INC estimate of 609,000 MT with 150,000 MT carry-over seen as politically motivated.
• Major exporters dispute the realistic availability of carry-over stocks.
• Field inspections suggest lower quality and significant frost damage.
• Sellers suspect price suppression to finalise remaining TMO commission deals.

💰 Farmer Behavior & Supply Pressure

• Farmers demand 250 TRY/kg to begin selling the new crop.
• Current price hovers around 200–210 TRY/kg, but little product is available.
• Exporters worry that early harvest withholding may lead to Q3/Q4 shortages.

🧪 Quality Risks Intensify

• Ongoing concerns about reduced quality and high reject rates.
• Sorting investments by exporters is rising, possibly driving up kernel premiums.

🧮 Buyers & Exporters in Strategic Pause

• Buyers delaying purchases; price gaps >€2/kg for the 2025 crop reported.
• Exporters expect the revised INC forecast by early June.
• Industry is awaiting July assessments for nut-drop and stinkbug damage.

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🔮 3-Day Price Forecast

📌 Upside Risk: Moderate – depending on early harvest behaviour and quality clarity.📌 Downside Risk: Limited – prices already corrected after INC shock.

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⛅ 14-Day Weather Trend – Turkey (Black Sea Region)

📍 Current Situation:🌡️ Mild to warm temperatures: 17–24°C.🌧️ Showers expected May 22–25.🌱 Bloom & nut set progressing, weather supports growth, but quality stress persists.

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📉 Global Crop & Production Trends (Outlook)

📉 Global consumption is expected to remain flat or slightly negative due to high prices.📈 Processing capacity in Turkey continues to expand.

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🧠 Key Takeaways & Strategy

🔍 Summary:

• Prices are steady but volatile, with increased rejection pressure on lower grades.
• Farmer holding behaviour and unclarified quality losses continue to distort the market.
• A downward revision of the INC forecast remains possible in June.

📌 Buyers:

• Avoid small kernel and paste exposure, prices are still inflated by weak demand.
• Secure the whole kernel supply gradually, especially Q3-Q4.

📌 Sellers:

• Maintain discipline – the market still favours quality sellers.
• Expect high sorting costs to remain a factor in profitability.