USDA Forecasts Record Corn Output – Markets Mixed as Exports Climb, Tariff Deal Announced
USDA Forecasts Record Corn Output – Markets Mixed as Exports Climb, Tariff Deal Announced
Corn markets ended Monday with mixed signals: while USDA confirmed a record global harvest in 2025/26, strong export shipments and a new U.S.–China tariff agreement lent support. Chicago futures eased slightly after early gains, while Paris prices remained stable.
Despite expectations for a record U.S. corn harvest and increased stock levels, the market was supported by another strong export inspection report and the announcement of reduced trade tariffs between the U.S. and China. Futures remained range-bound ahead of further clarity on demand.
Corn markets ended Monday with mixed signals: while USDA confirmed a record global harvest in 2025/26, strong export shipments and a new U.S.–China tariff agreement lent support. Chicago futures eased slightly after early gains, while Paris prices remained stable.
Despite expectations for a record U.S. corn harvest and increased stock levels, the market was supported by another strong export inspection report and the announcement of reduced trade tariffs between the U.S. and China. Futures remained range-bound ahead of further clarity on demand.
📈 Market Situation & Price Development
🇺🇸 CBOT (U.S. Market)
➡ Early recovery in U.S. markets, led by short covering and export optimism.🇪🇺 Euronext (EU Market)
➡ Stable start to the week on the Paris exchange, supported by EU weather concerns.🔍 Key Market Drivers
- 🌎 USDA Outlook (May 2025):
- Global production (2025/26): 1.265 Bn tons – new record
- U.S. production:
- 15.82 Bn bu (↑ +953 Mb or +6%)
- Yield: 181 bu/acre
- Planted area: 95.3 million acres – highest in 10+ years
- Ending stocks (U.S.):
- 1.8 Bn bu (+27% YoY)
- Average price: $4.20/bu
- U.S. Exports 2025/26:
- Forecast: 2.675 Bn bu (+2.9%) – maintains top global exporter status
- 📉 Brazil Production Update:
- USDA raised crop forecast to 130 Mt
- Conab: ↑ from 124.74 Mt → 126.87 Mt
- Safrinha crop: 99.8 Mt (↑ 11% YoY)
- Domestic use: 89.3 Mt (↑ 6.3% YoY) – ethanol growth
- Exports: unchanged at 34 Mt
- 📈 U.S. Export Inspections (May 15):
- Volume: 1.719 million t (+32.2% WoW / +39.1% YoY)
- Largest buyers: 🇲🇽 Mexico (566,535 t), 🇯🇵 Japan (269,983 t)
- Season total: 45.543 Mt (+29.2% YoY)
- 🏛 U.S.–China Tariff Deal (Announced):
- 90-day trial agreement
- 🇺🇸 U.S. base tariff on China: 30%
- 🇨🇳 China tariff on U.S. imports: reduced to 10% (from 145%/125%)
- Could revive U.S. corn negotiations, even if China buys little today
- 🌱 Crop Progress (as of May 19):
- U.S. corn planted: 78% (vs. 62% prev. week / 73% avg.)
- Fastest pace since 2012
☁️ 14-Day Weather Trend (Key Growing Regions)
🌍 Corn Market Snapshot (May 20)
💡 Trading Recommendations & Market Assessment
- 🟠 Market caught between record supply and strong demand
- 🔼 Export data & tariff easing provide short-term support
- 🔻 New crop pressure from Brazil and U.S. acreage continues
- Trade old crop long on export strength
- Be cautious on new crop contracts – focus on technical levels
- Watch for further updates on China negotiations
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (May 21–23)
