Global Wheat Prices Under Pressure – USDA Forecasts Record Harvest
Global Wheat Prices Under Pressure – USDA Forecasts Record Harvest
Wheat prices came under pressure this week after the USDA projected a record global wheat crop for 2025/26. U.S. stock levels are expected to rise sharply, fueling bearish momentum.
On the Euronext (MATIF), wheat was more stable but still under pressure from international trends.
Strategy:– Avoid new longs in U.S. wheat unless technical recovery is confirmed– Monitor Russian export pace and spring wheat acreage in the U.S. and Canada– EU buyers may begin pricing forward positions if MATIF stays below €210/t
Wheat prices came under pressure this week after the USDA projected a record global wheat crop for 2025/26. U.S. stock levels are expected to rise sharply, fueling bearish momentum.
📊 Market Situation & Price Development
In Chicago, CBOT wheat futures fell to new multi-month lows early in the week. Despite a small technical recovery, the market remained bearish following the USDA's WASDE report.On the Euronext (MATIF), wheat was more stable but still under pressure from international trends.
🌍 Key Market Drivers
- Record Global Harvest ExpectedThe USDA forecast pegs the 2025/26 global wheat crop at 808.5 million tons, up 9 Mt from last year. This would be the highest global wheat production ever recorded.
- Global Use Also RisesGlobal wheat consumption is projected at 803.6 Mt, up 4 Mt However, the balance remains marginally in surplus.
- Stock Build MinimalEnd-of-season global stocks are forecast to rise by just 500,000 t to 265.7 Mt, signalling no real recovery in the global balance sheet.
- U.S. Stocks SoarThe most bearish component: U.S. ending stocks are forecast to rise to 25.1 Mt – the highest in 6 years and well above analyst expectations. This continues a 3-year upward trend in U.S. stockpiles.
- EU Supply RebalancingEU stocks fell by 4.4 Mt to 15.4 Mt in 2024/25 due to poor harvests and tight Ukrainian supply. But the USDA now expects a modest recovery of 500,000 t in 2025/26.
- Export CompetitionU.S. wheat remains relatively expensive compared to Russia and Argentina, further reducing U.S. export competitiveness.
💼 Trading Strategy & Market Outlook
The USDA's bearish report sets the tone for the coming weeks. Unless weather or geopolitical risks materialise, the wheat market may stay under pressure.Strategy:– Avoid new longs in U.S. wheat unless technical recovery is confirmed– Monitor Russian export pace and spring wheat acreage in the U.S. and Canada– EU buyers may begin pricing forward positions if MATIF stays below €210/t