Soybeans Rebound on Argentina Weather and Strong Oil – Caution Ahead of EPA Ruling

Soybean futures rose on Tuesday as flooding in Argentina threatened harvest quality, while a recovery in soy oil lent additional support. Still, uncertainty around U.S. biodiesel policy limits the rally's potential.

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📊 Market Situation & Price Development

On Tuesday, the July 2025 contract on the CBOT rose by +2.25 ct to 1,053 ct/bu (~347 EUR/t). Futures posted their fourth gain in five sessions, fueled by oil-led support and concerns over harvest conditions in Argentina.

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

• Argentina Flooding Delays HarvestHeavy rainfall threatens quality and delays remaining soybean harvests. Concerns grow over yield losses and storage risks.
• Soy Oil Recovery ContinuesAfter last week's collapse, soy oil gained +0.91%, helping lift soybean values. Traders await clarity on EPA biodiesel blending targets.
• Fast U.S. Planting ProgressAlthough weather conditions remain favourable in the U.S. Midwest, planting progress is already near seasonal highs, reducing bearish potential.
• China Demand Outlook MixedTraders remain cautious as import interest from China has been sluggish, despite an improved diplomatic tone.
• Argentina Ends Tax Relief in JuneThe export tax discount on soybeans and oil will expire at the end of June, likely limiting exports and shifting demand forward.

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💼 Trading Strategy & Market Outlook

Soybeans are recovering but are capped by fundamental and policy uncertainties. Technical momentum is improving, but resistance near 1,060 remains strong.

Strategy:– Maintain cautious longs with stops below 1,045– Monitor USDA export data and EPA headlines– Consider hedging if soy oil fails to hold above 50 ct/lb

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📈 3-Day Price Forecast (Jul 25 Contract)

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🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – Soybean Regions

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