Corn Futures Rise – U.S. Planting Pace Mixed, Weather Adds Uncertainty

Corn futures climbed on Tuesday, supported by rising wheat prices and weather-related delays in key U.S. states. Traders are closely watching planting progress and rainfall in the Corn Belt.

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📊 Market Situation & Price Development

The July 2025 contract on the CBOT closed 7 ct higher at 454.50 ct/bu, while June corn on the Euronext rose €1.75 to €199.50/t.

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

• Planting Progress Meets Expectations – But UnevenAccording to the USDA's Crop Progress Report, U.S. corn planting reached 78% as of Sunday, in line with expectations and ahead of the 5-year average (73%) and last year (67%).– Delays were noted in: Illinois (–3%), Kentucky (–11%), Ohio (–12%), Tennessee (–3%)
• Weather Outlook Raises ConcernsRain is forecast for the next 7 days across the Eastern Corn Belt, which could further delay planting in already late areas.This increases speculation that some farmers may claim crop insurance rather than plant late corn.
• Emergence Ahead of Average50% of planted corn has emerged, compared to a historical average of 40%, supporting early growth where planting is complete.
• Argentina Export Tax Hike AnnouncedArgentina’s reduced 9.5% export tax will expire on June 30 and return to 12% starting July 1. This may incentivise short-term shipments and reduce competitiveness in Q3.
• Spillover from Wheat StrengthRising wheat prices have pulled corn higher as part of the broader grain complex.

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💼 Trading Strategy & Market Outlook

Corn shows near-term strength but remains weather-sensitive. Uncertainty about late planting and Argentine export flows could increase volatility.

Strategy:– Bullish bias continues above 450 ct– Monitor Eastern Corn Belt precipitation– Exporters may benefit from short-term Argentine front-loading

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📈 3-Day Price Forecast (CBOT Jul 25)

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🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – Corn Belt (USA)

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