The global sunflower market is entering a period of relative stability as seasonal dynamics and shifting trade flows shape both supply and demand. In China, the domestic purchasing season for oil sunflower has concluded, with only a handful of traders engaging in imported sunflower transactions.

The market for edible sunflower is also winding down in most regions, with Inner Mongolia still offering limited supplies of varying quality. As a result, procurement is largely need-based, with processors and export-oriented firms targeting lower-grade products. The prevailing sentiment is one of equilibrium, with no major supply or demand shocks anticipated in the short term and prices expected to remain steady.

On the international stage, prices for both seeds and kernels show modest fluctuations across origins, reflecting regional supply conditions and logistical factors. Ukrainian and Bulgarian sunflower products maintain competitive pricing, while Chinese offers remain at a premium, especially for high-purity and organic grades. Weather remains a critical watchpoint, particularly in Eastern Europe and the Black Sea region, where early summer conditions will influence yield prospects for the upcoming harvest. With global inventories comfortable and speculative activity subdued, the market outlook is one of cautious optimism, but vigilance is warranted as weather and geopolitical risks persist.

📈 Prices: Sunflower Seeds & Kernels

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• China: Domestic purchasing for oil sunflower is over; limited trade in imported seeds. The edible sunflower market is quiet, with some supply from Inner Mongolia, but quality varies. No major shifts in supply/demand expected short term.
• Black Sea Region: Ukraine and Bulgaria remain key exporters. Ukrainian supplies are steady, and prices are competitive. Export flows remain robust despite logistical challenges.
• Europe: Bulgarian and Moldovan seeds and kernels continue to be offered at stable prices, supporting EU supply chains.
• Speculative Positioning: No significant speculative build-up; market activity is dominated by commercial hedging and physical demand.
• Global Inventories: Comfortable stock levels in major exporting countries; no immediate inventory-driven price pressure.

📊 Fundamentals & Regional Comparison

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• Ukraine & Black Sea: Current weather is favourable, with adequate soil moisture and moderate temperatures. Early forecasts suggest average to above-average yields if conditions persist.
• EU (Bulgaria/Romania): Mild spring with localised rainfall supports crop development; isolated dry pockets are being monitored.
• China (Inner Mongolia): Weather normal, but variable quality from the previous season due to uneven rainfall. No major disruptions reported for the new crop yet.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term prices are expected to remain stable in China and the EU; modest firmness is possible in Ukraine due to steady export demand.
• Buyers should secure forward coverage for high-purity and organic kernels, as supply is limited and a price premium persists.
• Monitor Black Sea weather closely—any adverse development could quickly tighten global supply and support prices.
• Exporters: Consider locking in sales at current levels, especially for bakery/confectionery kernels, as price upside is capped by ample stocks.
• Speculators: The Market is range-bound; limited opportunity for volatility-driven gains in the near term.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast