The global beans market is currently experiencing heightened tension, with supply constraints and firm prices dominating the landscape. In the UK, the supply of red kidney beans has nearly dried up, with only residual processing of previous orders and sporadic seed supply remaining. Local trade and processing inventories are at historic lows, and quality beans are commanding high prices, with little sign of price relief.

This tightness is being felt across major production and export regions, including China and Brazil, where FOB prices for various bean types remain elevated or stable. Downstream demand is steady, but the persistent supply-demand imbalance continues to underpin the market. Weather risks in key growing regions could further impact yield prospects, keeping market participants alert for any changes in fundamentals. The current environment suggests that beans, particularly premium varieties, will remain well-supported in the near term, with limited downside risk unless there is a significant shift in supply or demand fundamentals.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• UK: Red kidney bean stocks are nearly exhausted, with only minimal processing of prior orders and seed supply. Trade and processing activities are winding down, and quality beans remain expensive.
• China: Supplies remain tight, supporting firm prices for both organic and conventional varieties. Exporters are holding limited inventories, and high-quality beans are particularly scarce.
• Brazil: Prices for kidney and alubia beans are steady, with some upward momentum as local inventories are drawn down.
• Demand: Downstream demand remains steady, with no signs of significant contraction. The overall market continues to reflect a tight supply-demand balance.

📊 Fundamentals

• Inventories: Global inventories are at multi-year lows, especially for premium quality beans.
• Speculative Positioning: Limited speculative interest due to low liquidity and tight physical supply.
• Trade Flows: Export flows from China and Brazil are steady but constrained by limited availability.
• Market Drivers:
  • UK and EU: End-of-season stockouts and firm prices.
  • China: Tight supply, strong export demand, and steady domestic consumption.
  • Brazil: Stable prices, some upward risk if weather disrupts next harvest.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• China (Northeast, Heilongjiang): Recent rains have improved soil moisture, but cooler-than-normal temperatures could delay planting in some areas. No major frost risk, but watch for late planting impacts on yields.
• Brazil (Paraná, Minas Gerais): Mild, dry weather is favorable for harvest completion, but future rainfall is needed to replenish soil moisture for the next cycle.
• UK: Weather is less critical now as the season winds down, but any late rainfall could affect seed quality for next year.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Maintain long positions in premium quality beans, especially from China and UK, as supply remains tight.
• Monitor weather developments in China and Brazil for potential impacts on the next crop cycle.
• Consider forward contracts for late 2025 delivery, as current tightness is likely to persist into the next marketing year.
• Buyers should act promptly for high-quality lots; sellers can hold firm on offers.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast