Rapeseed Retreats After 3-Day Rally – Baltic Rain Relieves Supply Fears

After three days of steady gains, rapeseed futures on Euronext edged lower on Wednesday. Forecasted rainfall in Northern and Eastern Europe reduced crop stress concerns, while ICE canola spreads continue to tighten.

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📊 Market Overview – Euronext & ICE

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

• Rain Relieves Baltic Stress:Forecasted rain for Poland, Germany, and the Baltic states eases drought fears.
• Canada: Sowing Active, Selling Passive:Canadian farmers focus on planting. Physical availability from farms remains low despite rising new crop prices.
• Speculators Increase Long Exposure:Euronext data shows non-commercial net long positions rose from 18,483 to 26,859 contracts as of May 16.

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💼 Trading Strategy & Outlook

Technical support near €482/t remains valid. Traders now assess weather resilience and spread action in canola.

Recommendations:– Avoid new longs below €482– Monitor spread between Jul/Nov ICE for harvest signals– Sellers should consider defending €490+ offers for new crop

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📈 3-Day Price Forecast (Euronext Aug 25)

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🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – Key Rapeseed Regions

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