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Karl Friedrich zu Melibokus

May 29, 2025

Sugar Market Slides Sharply – August Contract Crashes Below USD 475/t

Sugar Market Slides Sharply – August Contract Crashes Below USD 475/t

Sugar Market Slides Sharply – August Contract Crashes Below USD 475/t

On 28 May 2025, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures plunged across the curve. The August 2025 contract fell 2.38% to USD 471.40/t (EUR 438.40/t) – the lowest level in nearly four months. Ongoing pressure from record global harvests, muted EU demand, and a strong USD continue to weigh on the market.




📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (28.05.2025)

(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)




🇪🇺 EU Market Snapshot – Sentiment Weakens Further

📉 EU FCA spot prices remain at EUR 0.54–0.56/kg, with some reported offers slipping towards EUR 0.53/kg.📦 Demand remains flat. Buyers cite sufficient stocks, high-intensity sweetener substitution, and uncertain price floor as reasons for their caution.🔻 The gap between EU spot and ICE futures is narrowing.




🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 28.05.2025)




📊 Price Comparison Table




🌍 Global Drivers: Supply vs Sentiment

🌾 Brazil and India report excellent crop conditions and strong export flows.💱 USD remains firm, lowering sugar competitiveness from non-dollar markets.📉 Funds may have increased short exposure, triggering technical selling.




🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (29–31 May 2025)

📌 Outlook:Bearish bias persists. Support is expected near USD 465/t unless weather or trade dynamics change.




🧭 Conclusion & Strategy

📉 The sugar market is in a technical downtrend, led by global supply pressure and demand stagnation.🇪🇺 EU spot buyers remain in control, and forward demand remains thin.🌦️ Without weather shocks or trade disruptions, the current trend may deepen.

📌 Recommendations:

  • 🛒 Buyers: Strong negotiation power – consider short-term coverage at spot levels under EUR 0.54/kg.
  • 📦 Sellers: Avoid speculative pricing – focus on liquidity and flexible terms.
  • 📊 Traders: Downside risk remains – watch for stabilisation signals before re-entry.
📍 Summary:ICE sugar futures enter breakdown territory, with no meaningful buying support.
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