Sugar Market Slides Sharply – August Contract Crashes Below USD 475/t
On 28 May 2025, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures
plunged across the curve. The
August 2025 contract fell 2.38% to USD 471.40/t (EUR 438.40/t) – the lowest level in nearly four months. Ongoing pressure from
record global harvests,
muted EU demand, and a
strong USD continue to weigh on the market.
📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (28.05.2025)
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
🇪🇺 EU Market Snapshot – Sentiment Weakens Further
📉
EU FCA spot prices remain at
EUR 0.54–0.56/kg, with some reported offers slipping towards
EUR 0.53/kg.📦 Demand remains flat. Buyers cite
sufficient stocks,
high-intensity sweetener substitution, and
uncertain price floor as reasons for their caution.🔻 The
gap between EU spot and ICE futures is narrowing.
🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 28.05.2025)
📊 Price Comparison Table
🌍 Global Drivers: Supply vs Sentiment
🌾
Brazil and India report
excellent crop conditions and
strong export flows.💱 USD remains firm, lowering sugar competitiveness from non-dollar markets.📉 Funds may have increased short exposure, triggering technical selling.
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (29–31 May 2025)
📌
Outlook:Bearish bias persists. Support is expected near USD 465/t unless weather or trade dynamics change.
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
📉 The sugar market is in a technical downtrend, led by global supply pressure and demand stagnation.🇪🇺 EU spot buyers remain in control, and forward demand remains thin.🌦️ Without weather shocks or trade disruptions, the current trend may deepen.
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: Strong negotiation power – consider short-term coverage at spot levels under EUR 0.54/kg.
- 📦 Sellers: Avoid speculative pricing – focus on liquidity and flexible terms.
- 📊 Traders: Downside risk remains – watch for stabilisation signals before re-entry.
📍
Summary:ICE sugar futures enter breakdown territory, with no meaningful buying support.
