The global peas market is currently experiencing significant volatility, driven by shifting trade policies, fluctuating import volumes, and evolving weather patterns in key growing regions. In India, the world's largest pulse consumer, unrestricted and cheap imports of yellow peas have led to a sharp decline in domestic prices, undermining farmers' income and prompting urgent policy interventions. The Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP) has recommended a ban on yellow pea imports and an increase in import duties for other pulses to realign market prices with the Minimum Support Price (MSP), aiming to secure better returns for domestic producers. This move comes as India imported over 3.3 million tonnes of yellow peas between December 2023 and April 2025 under a duty-free window, which is set to close at the end of May 2025. The influx of low-cost yellow peas, a near substitute for chana, has not only pressured chana prices but also impacted the broader pulses market. Meanwhile, global pea prices remain under pressure, with recent declines seen in both European and Black Sea origins. Weather conditions across major production zones, including the EU, Ukraine, and Canada, are closely monitored, as late-spring rains and temperature swings could impact yields. As policy changes loom and the new Kharif season approaches, market participants are watching for potential price corrections, supply adjustments, and speculative shifts. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining the market's direction as India recalibrates its import policies and global supply chains adapt to new realities.

📈 Peas Prices at Key Origins

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• India's Import Policy: Duty-free import window for yellow peas closes May 31, 2025. CACP recommends a ban and higher duties on other pulses to support domestic prices.
• Import Volumes: Over 3.3 million tonnes of yellow peas imported into India since December 2023, sharply increasing domestic supply and pressuring prices.
• Substitution Effect: Yellow peas, being cheaper and a substitute for chana, have diverted demand, impacting other pulse varieties.
• Global Inventories: Ample stocks in Ukraine and the EU continue to weigh on export prices. Canadian stocks remain moderate after a stable 2024 harvest.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money remains largely neutral, awaiting clear policy signals from India and updated crop progress reports from major exporters.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• MSP Policy Update: India approved a 1–13.9% increase in MSP for Kharif 2025–26 crops, aiming to incentivize local production.
• Trade Policy Shift: Recommendations to align import duties with MSP are expected to reduce future imports and bolster domestic prices.
• Recent Price Trends: Weakness in yellow pea prices from Poland and Ukraine (-2.7% and -5.9% weekly) reflects oversupply and uncertain demand from India post-duty window.
• Comparison to Previous Report: Last month's report highlighted similar bearish pressure, but the policy debate has intensified as the import window nears closure.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• Europe (Poland, UK): Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture, but cooler-than-average temperatures could delay crop maturation. No major weather threats currently.
• Ukraine: Favorable rains expected over the next week, supporting vegetative growth. Mild risk of late spring frost in northern regions.
• Canada: Early planting has progressed well; forecast calls for scattered showers, supporting establishment. No significant drought risk for the next 10 days.
• India: Pre-monsoon showers are normal; Kharif sowing to start with monsoon onset in June. Watch for monsoon progression as a key yield determinant.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor India's policy announcements on yellow pea import bans and duty increases, as these will set the tone for global price movements.
• Expect short-term price volatility as Indian buyers rush to secure shipments before the import window closes.
• Exporters in Ukraine and Poland may face further price pressure if Indian demand drops abruptly in June.
• Buyers should consider locking in contracts for green and marrowfat peas, which show price stability.
• Watch for weather developments in Canada and Ukraine, as late-season risks could tighten supply and support prices later in the season.
• Speculators should remain cautious until the policy landscape in India becomes clearer post-May 31.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast