The global wheat market is navigating a period of heightened volatility, shaped by diverging regional crop prospects and shifting export dynamics. On one hand, traders are digesting notably poorer crop condition ratings in the United States, where winter and spring wheat assessments have fallen short of even the most pessimistic analyst expectations. This is fueling concerns about US supply for the upcoming marketing year and has provided short-term support to US wheat futures.

On the other hand, the European Union and Russia are reporting improved or stable outlooks for their 2025/26 wheat harvests. The European Commission recently raised its soft wheat production forecast to 126.6 million tonnes, now 13% above the 2024/25 crop, while Russia's SovEcon consultancy increased its 2025 harvest estimate to 81 million tonnes due to favourable weather. However, Russia's export volumes are still expected to lag the previous two seasons, and Ukraine's exports are projected to fall as well, contributing to a tightening global balance. Meanwhile, Argentina's sowing campaign is progressing rapidly despite regional weather challenges. The interplay between these regional developments, speculative positioning, and ongoing weather risks—especially in key US and Russian regions—will be crucial for price direction in the coming weeks.

📈 Prices

Key Wheat Futures Closing Prices (as of 29-30 May 2025)

Spot Market Prices (FOB, as of 28 May 2025)

🌍 Supply & Demand

• EU: The European Commission increased its 2025/26 soft wheat crop forecast to 126.6 Mio t (+300,000 t), 13% above the previous year. Exports are projected at 29.8 Mio t, with ending stocks up to 9.05 Mio t (from 8.5 Mio t in April).
• Russia: SovEcon raised its 2025 harvest forecast to 81.0 Mio t (from 79.8 Mio t), though this is below last year's 82.6 Mio t. Wheat exports are now seen at 40.8 Mio t (+1.1 Mio t vs. previous estimate), but logistical and pricing headwinds may slow the start of the new export season.
• Ukraine: ASAP Agri expects 2025/26 wheat exports at 15 Mio t, below 2024/25's 16.2 Mio t.
• US: Wheat condition ratings have deteriorated, with both winter and spring crops below analyst expectations, raising concerns about the 2025/26 supply.
• Argentina: Sowing for 2025/26 is progressing well (10.5% complete), with a target area of 6.7 Mio ha, although recent rains have caused some delays in parts of the country.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Weekly Export Sales: Delayed by the Memorial Day holiday. Traders expect net cancellations of 200,000 t to sales of 100,000 t for old crop (2024/25), and 300,000–800,000 t for new crop (2025/26).
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money has recently reduced short positions in US wheat, reflecting growing weather and supply risks.
• Global Inventories: EU and Russian stocks are set to rise modestly, but overall global stocks remain tight due to lower exports from Ukraine and uncertain US supply.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• US Plains: Persistent dryness and heat are stressing crops, with little relief forecast for the next week. This is likely to further pressure US production potential.
• Russia (Rostov): Mixed conditions; while overall weather has improved, some key areas (Rostov) are struggling with disappointing yields.
• EU: Mild and favourable weather is supporting crop development in Western and Central Europe, with minor localised dryness.
• Argentina: Dryness in the west and north is favourable for sowing, but heavy rains in some regions could delay further progress.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bullish Factors: US crop stress and lower-than-expected crop ratings, slow Russian export start, and tightening Ukrainian export outlook.
• Bearish Factors: Upward revisions to EU and Russian crop forecasts, favourable sowing progress in Argentina.
• Recommendations:
  • End-users should consider covering near-term needs, particularly from the US or Ukraine, as weather risks persist.
  • Producers in Russia and the EU may benefit from waiting for potential price rallies if US conditions worsen further.
  • Speculators: Watch for volatility around USDA export sales and weekly crop condition reports, as these will drive short-term price action.
  • Monitor Russian and Ukrainian export pace closely; any further logistical or policy disruptions could quickly tighten global supply.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast