The global soybean market is navigating significant headwinds as prices continue to slide, particularly in key Asian markets like China. In May, China witnessed a sharp 14.69% decline in soybean meal prices, dropping from 3,476 yuan/ton at the start of the month to 2,966 yuan/ton by May 28. This stark decrease follows the resumption of soybean imports post-holiday, coupled with new tariff declarations that triggered a downturn in the futures market. Domestic spot prices have weakened further, reflecting lackluster demand from feed producers, who remain cautious and limited in their purchases. Market analysts forecast ongoing weakness for soybean meal, given the tepid feed demand and persistent volatility in raw material supply. Globally, U.S., Indian, Ukrainian, and Chinese prices are relatively stable but are shadowed by exporters' readiness to adjust to the shifting fundamentals seen in Asian import markets. This analysis examines prices, trading dynamics, fundamental data, global supply and demand trends, key weather influences, and strategic recommendations for traders and industry participants in the soybean complex.

📈 Prices at a Glance

*Conversion from yuan/ton to USD/kg based on latest exchange rates.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• China's soybean meal prices plunged by nearly 15% in May due to surging imports after port reopenings and sluggish downstream feed demand.
• New tariff declarations added pressure, weakening futures and spot markets further.
• US, Indian, and Ukrainian FOB prices remained largely steady, suggesting that global price softness is led by Asian consumption trends rather than supply shortages.
• Feed millers in China remain cautious, limiting forward purchases to short-term needs, amplifying market pressure.
• Global inventories reported by USDA indicate ample supply, but attention is focused on North and South American harvest progress and Brazilian logistics.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA reports suggest healthy global production for 2024/25, but inventories could tighten if South American yields falter.
• Speculative positioning is still largely short, reflecting continued bearish outlook among futures traders.
• China's finished feed sector remains a weak link in demand recovery, putting continued downward pressure on meal.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• US Midwest: Generally favorable early-season weather, though localized excessive rainfall is slowing fieldwork and could impact late-sown soybeans if the wet pattern persists.
• Brazil: Mostly dry conditions have aided late harvest but may curb soil moisture for 2025 planting. No imminent weather threats reported.
• Argentina: Mild conditions with adequate soil moisture. Yield prospects are stable; no significant stress forecast in near term.
• China: Favorable field conditions for domestic crops in north and northeast, with rainfall near average.

🌐 Global Output & Stock Comparison

*China figure is imports, not domestic production.

📝 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers: Consider forward hedging for Q3/Q4; global S&D remains balanced for now, but weather risk is elevated for late US season.
• Importers: Take advantage of lower prices for spot and short-term coverage, monitor China’s port activity closely.
• Feed mills: Minimize inventory holding; buy hand-to-mouth until price stability returns.
• Investors/Speculators: Cautious; stay nimble with short-term positions, as sentiment can shift with US Midwest weather or policy surprise in China.
• Risk: Watch for renewed logistics disruptions in Brazil/US or escalations in trade policy tension (esp. US-China).

📆 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)