The global sunflower market is bracing for significant shifts in 2025, marked by U.S. farmers’ aggressive push to expand sunflower acreage amid persistent global supply anxieties and burgeoning demand. According to the USDA, U.S. sunflower plantings could rise nearly 50% in the upcoming season, setting the stage for a 60% jump in total production. Notably, oilseed sunflower production is expected to surge by 70% year-over-year, responding to robust processing and domestic consumption growth.

This surge in U.S. output arrives at a crucial time. Ukraine, once responsible for half the world’s sunflower oil exports, faces a volatile season clouded by geopolitical strife and uncertain final yields. Global buyers thus find themselves scrutinizing Black Sea dynamics and pivoting focus to the Northern Hemisphere’s sowing and weather outlook. With South America’s oilseed harvest in the rearview, the U.S. and crucial areas of Europe have become central to price discovery and supply confidence.

Despite ongoing uncertainties, prices for new-crop sunflower seeds remain resilient, hinting at a market cautious but far from bearish. Weather will play a pivotal role over the coming months, with early signs supporting stable-to-firm pricing thanks to tightening supplies and high processing demand in both the edible oil and meal sectors. In summary, the 2025 sunflower market stands on the edge of structural change, as U.S. production ambitions rise and the world anxiously monitors both weather risks and Black Sea developments.

📈 Prices & Market Changes

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• U.S. Expansion: Plantings to rise nearly 50%; oilseed acreage up 62% for 2025, pushing production forecast to 834,610 tons (+60% vs. 2024).
• Processing Demand: Domestic sunseed processing in the U.S. to reach 425,000 tons, with sunflower oil use climbing to 308,900 tons in 2025/26.
• Ukraine Variables: Black Sea production remains uncertain; Ukraine’s share in global sunflower oil exports remains key. Output hinges on final sowing and weather.
• China and EU: Solid demand for kernels and seeds; China’s seed prices at a premium due to local demand and import requirements.
• Stocks: Global inventories are expected to tighten if Ukraine’s output falters, though U.S. expansion provides some offset.
• Speculative Positioning: Funds are cautious amid supply uncertainty and varied regional growing conditions.

📊 Fundamentals & Production Comparisons

*Subject to revision pending harvest conditions and geopolitical factors.

☀️ Weather Outlook & Regional Risks

• U.S. Plains: Near-term forecasts show above-average temperatures and scattered showers, favoring germination but with pockets of drought risk in some areas (North Dakota, South Dakota).
• Ukraine: Mixed conditions with recent rain aiding establishment, but forecast heatwaves could increase stress during flowering, critically affecting yield if prolonged.
• Bulgaria & Romania: Generally favorable conditions, though risk of short-term dryness persists.
• China: Moderate rainfall supports good start to season, but localized flood potential could bring volatility.

🌏 Global Market Dynamics

• Ukraine’s export flows remain the single largest wild card for prices in H2 2025. Any decline or logistics issue will spur global price rallies.
• EU buyers are increasingly looking to the U.S. and Latin America for oilseed security, trimming reliance on Black Sea supplies.
• China’s appetite for bakery and confection kernels remains firm, supporting premium pricing.
• U.S. expansion will offset but not fully replace Black Sea shortfalls if severe.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🟢 Buy on dips: With U.S. acreage surging, short-term price pullbacks are possible, but ongoing Ukraine risks mean prices are unlikely to fall sharply for long.
• 🟢 Monitor weather: Focus on U.S. Plains and Ukrainian forecasts—adverse weather could provide upside price spurts.
• 🟡 Watch policy: Any trade restrictions, sanctions, or changes in export regimes from Black Sea ports may radically alter short-term supply.
• 🔴 Exporters: Secure forward coverage where feasible, especially for Q3-Q4 delivery, to hedge volatility and maximize on-farm returns.
• 🟠 Buyers: Lock in pricing for physical deliveries through late Q3, but stagger purchases in case of bearish weather-driven flush at U.S. harvest.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast