The rapeseed market has experienced heightened volatility, marked by a modest late-week rebound that failed to offset earlier losses. After a sharp midweek drop, Euronext’s August contract recovered slightly by €2 to €474.50/t, but closed the week down €14.50 or 2.9%. A return of buying interest at lower price levels provided some relief, yet overall sentiment remains cautious amid persistent weather concerns and shifting supply fundamentals.

A slight reduction in EU-wide yield estimates, coupled with ongoing dryness in northern Germany and moisture deficits in critical Canadian growing regions, continues to challenge both production outlook and market direction. Meanwhile, Canadian ICE canola futures stay near 18-month highs, underpinned by weather uncertainties in the Prairie Provinces. Market participants are urged to monitor key agronomic updates and evolving weather patterns, as these factors could drive further volatility in the weeks ahead.

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📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• European Union: The latest MARS report lowered EU yield estimates to 3.17 t/ha (previously 3.20 t/ha), reflecting weather-related downgrades, particularly in Germany, where moisture deficits persist. German yields now forecast at 3.60 t/ha (April: 3.67 t/ha).
• Canada: ICE canola futures remain supported by ongoing dryness in the Prairies, threatening yields and tightening global supply outlooks.
• Ukraine: Supply from Ukraine remains steady, with competitively priced offers and no recent weather disruptions reported.
• Demand: Buyers are showing interest at lower price levels, but macroeconomic factors and biofuel policies require close monitoring.

📊 Fundamentals

• Technical Drivers: Markets rebounded technically after sharp losses but could see renewed pressure if crop stress intensifies or macro risks (e.g., currency shifts, crude oil prices) return.
• Inventories: Global rapeseed/canola stocks are tight and vulnerable to further weather shocks, especially if forecasts in June/July remain adverse.
• Speculation: Fund flows have been mixed, with some positions covering after midweek sell-offs. Watch for CFTC and Euronext updates.

☁️ Weather Outlook

• Europe: Weather remains mostly favourable, but key regions in northern Germany and eastern France face ongoing moisture deficits. No severe heatwaves are forecast for the next 5-7 days, but rainfall is below normal in northern Germany.
• Canada: The Prairies remain largely dry, especially Saskatchewan and Manitoba, keeping the yield potential uncertain. Limited rainfall is forecast through early June—monitor for any shift in precipitation patterns.

🌎 Global Production & Stocks

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor weekly weather maps and rainfall updates in the EU and Canadian Prairies for early signs of crop stress.
• Expect rangebound to slightly supportive pricing unless severe drought or macro shocks develop.
• For crushers and processors: Consider moderate forward coverage, especially if prices dip toward recent lows.
• For exporters: Stay alert to European and Canadian weather headlines; any deterioration could trigger a rapid price rebound.
• For producers: Hold off on aggressive forward selling unless weather turns definitively favourable.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

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