Recent data from SAFEX shows a consistent downward correction across future contracts, with declines ranging from -0.58% to -2% for maturities up to July 2026. This downturn comes despite moderate activity and is mirrored in global spot markets, where sunflower seed and kernel prices from Ukraine, Bulgaria, Moldova, and China paint a complex picture: some stable, some easing, and others showing slight increases. Key supply drivers include ample stocks in Eastern Europe, seasonal pressure as the northern hemisphere heads toward new crop harvests, and competitive alternate oilseed supplies.

Meanwhile, weather uncertainties loom large, especially in the Black Sea region and South Africa, where recent dryness threatens new crop potential. Global sunflower oil demand remains robust, particularly from Asia and the Middle East, but plantings and yields will be closely watched in the coming weeks. With softening speculative interest and uncertain production outlooks, market participants are advised to remain vigilant, leveraging up-to-date weather information and exchange data. The balance of 2025 will likely be shaped by weather patterns, export policy shifts, and ongoing macroeconomic trends.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• The Black Sea region remains the main supply hub: Ukrainian offers continue to saturate the market, currently holding prices steady amid abundant stocks.
• Bulgaria and Moldova supply remains robust; a small uptick in Bulgarian black seed prices may indicate localised tightening.
• Chinese prices for both seeds and kernels show minor short-term increases, hinting at improving demand and/or cost pressures.
• Demand for sunflower oil from India, the Middle East, and North Africa is solid; EU import needs are moderate but steady.
• Speculator positioning on SAFEX and global oilseed funds is showing consolidation, signalling short-term indecision.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• USDA Recent Reports: Projected stable to slightly higher 2025 global production, contingent on Eastern Europe's weather.
• Crop Acreage: Ukraine and Russia maintain large sowing areas but face weather-related risks. Market eyes the next 2-4 weeks’ rainfall.
• Global Inventories: Comfortable stock levels in major exporters, yet vulnerable to sudden weather shifts.
• Speculation: Managed money has pared long positions in oilseeds, weighing on the futures curve.
• Trade Policy: No fresh restrictions; logistical flows from Odesa remain unimpeded for now.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Ukraine/Black Sea: Prolonged dry spells in central and southern Ukraine; production risk heightened if June rains underperform.
• South Africa: Recent dryness has stressed late sunflower crops, with yield reductions possible if drought persists.
• Europe: Mixed outlook; Bulgaria normal, but Romania and Hungary showing signs of short-term dryness.
• China: Mostly favourable, with localised storms possible in Manchuria.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Benefit from current price softness to cover short-term needs; potential for near-term rebound if persistent weather risks materialise.
• Monitor Black Sea and South African weather daily—yield downgrades could spark a market correction upwards.
• Buyers seeking forward coverage: consider partial hedging, as downside is closing while upside risk grows.
• Sellers are advised to maintain discipline; avoid panic selling, especially if positioned on late 2025 and early 2026 contracts.
• Closely track logistics from Odesa and any new regulations in Russia or the EU—critical for supply chain planning.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Outlook