Global chickpeas markets continue to face significant volatility as the 2024–25 season unfolds. Despite government efforts to stabilize the sector—such as increasing the minimum support price (MSP), reducing import duties, and approving substantial procurement quotas—actual offtake by agencies remains worryingly low. The aftermath of this subdued procurement is already visible: government stocks are thin, and arrivals from primary producing regions are slowing now that peak harvest is over. At the same time, domestic market prices remain just above the MSP, even after retreating from earlier annual highs, keeping procurement under pressure and limiting buffer stock building.

In response to these challenges and amid persistent global uncertainty, importing nations such as India have slashed import tariffs to support local supplies, while exporters in Mexico and Australia monitor demand cues closely. With last year's lack of government reserves having contributed to extreme price swings, policymakers are considering direct open-market interventions under the Price Stabilization Fund (PSF) to prevent further shocks. However, with imports from Australia and Tanzania slowing and global weather risks lingering, fresh upside cannot be ruled out. For traders, processors, and buyers, the market presents a complicated environment in which policy decisions, weather outcomes, and international trade flows all play pivotal roles.

📈 Chickpeas Prices (FOB, 2025-05-30)

🌍 Supply & Demand Overview

• Supply: Market arrivals have begun to decline post-harvest; this, combined with low government procurement (< 250,000 tonnes vs. 2.8 million tonnes target), limits available buffer stocks.
• Demand: Domestic demand remains steady, supported by festival and wedding season requirements in consuming countries. Import demand is expected to rise as domestic supplies thin.
• India's Policy Shift: India's government reduced chickpeas import duty to 10% (from 60% last year; briefly zero in 2024) to spur imports amid tight supply.
• Buffer Stocks: Central reserves remain uncomfortably low, magnifying risk of sharp upward price movement should supply shocks occur.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• MSP Update: 2024–25 chickpea MSP is now USD 67.80/quintal, up from USD 65.28/quintal in 2023–24.
• Government Procurement: Despite high targets, procurement at MSP is severely lagging, risking future market volatility.
• Procurement History: 2021–22: 2.61M tonnes; 2022–23: 2.35M tonnes; 2023–24: only 0.043M tonnes.
• Speculative Activity: Thin supplies and policy ambiguity are encouraging cautious trader positioning; price stabilization fund discussions add uncertainty.

⛅ Weather Outlook (India, Australia, Mexico)

• India: Pre-monsoon conditions are drier than average in northern and central growing states, though no immediate drought threats (IMD, late May 2025). Near-normal monsoon onset is predicted, beneficial for next planting cycle.
• Australia: Favorable rainfall in key producing areas is expected to boost winter chickpea plantings, though some eastern regions report minor delays due to recent flooding.
• Mexico: Moisture levels are adequate. Planting for the next season is on schedule, but meteorological agencies warn of possible late-season heatwaves.

🌐 Global Production & Inventory Comparison

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers: Secure forward contracts if buffer stock interventions increase, as prices may rise if PSF scheme is implemented.
• Exporters: Monitor Indian and Middle East demand closely; tailwinds possible from import duty cuts and depleted stocks.
• Traders: Watch for government market interventions; low state reserves mean any weather or policy shocks could be price-positive.
• End-users/Processors: Use current price weakness to build inventories; monitor weather and new crop forecasts.

📅 3-Day Price Forecast (Regional - FOB)