The global corn market is currently navigating a complex set of influences that have led to palpable volatility in futures and spot prices. Over the past week, corn futures on major exchanges, including CBOT and Euronext, have seen downward pressure, fueled predominantly by favourable weather forecasts for the US Corn Belt—a crucial region for global corn production. Timely rains, coupled with progression in US planting (with 93% of corn now seeded and a solid 69% rated good-to-excellent), have allayed earlier crop concerns and weighed on bullish sentiment. Yet, these losses have been partially offset by robust export demand and support from a weakening US dollar. Meanwhile, South America, and especially Brazil, is poised for record output, as local analysts significantly revise their crop estimates upwards, reinforcing a bearish tone in the supply outlook.

On the derivative and physical markets, spot quotes and forward contracts are reflecting this interplay between ample global supply prospects and steady demand. Current market data also highlights how regional dynamics—such as Ukraine's continued competitiveness and French FOB offers—shape trade flows. Looking ahead, sustaining positive crop condition ratings and ongoing global weather developments remain pivotal market drivers. For traders, processors, and end-users, near-term price risks may be skewed to the downside, especially if US Midwest weather continues to favour crop development and Brazil's bumper harvest materialises as expected, despite ongoing resilience in demand from major buyers.

📈 Prices: Key Futures & Physical Corn Market Quotes

🌍 Supply & Demand: Bull vs. Bear Drivers

• US Crop Progress: Planting is 93% complete (on time); conditions rated 69% good/excellent, slightly higher week-on-week—an indicator of robust crop prospects.
• South America: Brazil’s corn harvest estimate upped to 128.5–134 Mio t (AgRural, StoneX), primarily due to a strong safrinha (second) crop.
• Export Demand: Strong US exports and a weaker USD are providing some underlying support.
• Macro Factors: Weakness in the soybean complex and positive weather forecasts are capping rallies.

📊 Fundamentals: Global Production & Stocks

🌤️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• The US Corn Belt is forecast to receive widespread rainfall over the next 7 days, providing crucial moisture during early crop stages. If realised, this will further support crop ratings and yield prospects.
• Brazil has started its second-crop (safrinha) harvest under generally favourable weather, bolstering the already optimistic production estimates.
• Central/Eastern Europe: Stable conditions but regional dryness in parts of Ukraine warrants monitoring.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For Producers: Consider forward sales, especially if further US crop progress points to a bumper harvest and Brazil maintains export pace.
• For End-Users: Good time for phased procurement on price dips. Monitor currency moves and freight rates for importers.
• Speculators: Downside risk increases in near term; consider tightening stops or short positions, but stay alert to abrupt weather or geopolitical changes.
• Watch: Next USDA WASDE report (global stock revision risks), ongoing US/Ukraine weather, and Chinese import demand updates.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast