The global wheat market is entering a pivotal phase as the 2025/26 campaign gains traction amid notable price stability, moderate inventory movements, and growing concerns about weather-related risks in several key producing regions. Despite little volatility in exchange prices over the last trading sessions, underlying tensions remain. International wheat values on Euronext (MATIF) and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) have seen limited changes, indicating ongoing market indecision balanced between robust supply in certain origins and potential yield threats due to weather problems elsewhere.

That said, the FOB market for high-protein wheat in critical export hubs like Ukraine, France, and the U.S. reflects slight regional pricing variations driven by local fundamentals, crop quality, and logistics. Weather risks are re-emerging as a central factor: Northwest Europe's persistent wetness threatens harvest and quality prospects, while dryness across the U.S. Plains and Black Sea region is under scrutiny. The market's eyes are now on updated USDA reports, with acreage and stock data anticipated to set the tone for the coming weeks. As global buyers monitor both supply-side optimism and mounting agronomic challenges, wheat market participants are advised to stay alert for possible volatility spikes. Read on for the latest market data, drivers, and actionable insight.

📈 Wheat Prices Across Major Exchanges

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA Reports: Stable global ending stocks and a slight upward revision in global wheat production forecasts, but trade flows could tighten if weather-driven crop losses materialise.
• Crop Acreage: Early acreage data suggests a stable wheat area in the U.S., with modest increases in the EU and Black Sea regions; potential for reductions if seeding conditions deteriorate.
• Inventories: Inventories remain comfortable, though there is heightened market awareness of any weather-driven adjustments.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money has trimmed some net-short positions on CBOT, hinting at growing hedging activity in response to weather fears.

📊 Market Fundamentals & FOB Offers

⛅ Weather Outlook & Regional Impact

• Northwest Europe: Higher-than-average rainfall continues, raising concerns about late-season disease pressure and potential harvest delays.
• U.S. Plains: Below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures raise yield risk for spring wheat.
• Black Sea (Ukraine, Russia): Variable precipitation patterns—some areas face deficits, potentially curbing yield prospects.
• Australia: Seasonal forecasts remain mixed, but recent rainfall has stabilised new-crop outlooks after early dryness in WA and NSW.

🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor weather-driven volatility in key origins (EU, US, Black Sea).
• Consider short-term hedges for old-crop positions due to the risk of harvest-time quality downgrades in Europe.
• Physical buyers: Evaluate opportunities in FOB Ukraine for cost-competitive high-protein lots.
• Exporters: Maintain coverage into Q3/Q4, but remain flexible given the unpredictable weather-related supply-side developments.
• Keep a close eye on USDA’s next reports for confirmation of acreage and stock trends.
• Expect spot prices to hold in a narrow range near-term unless adverse weather triggers a supply shock.

📆 Three-Day Regional Price Forecast