The global wheat market has recently been navigating through choppy waters, with Euronext milling wheat futures dipping to their lowest level in months. The past week saw heightened bearish sentiment driven by continued export competitiveness from Russia, improved weather outlooks in key producing regions, and an overall perception of ample international supply headed into the summer. Despite volatile trading, September wheat futures on Euronext managed to hover just above the psychological barrier of 200 euros per tonne, having touched an intraweek low of 200.25 euros, before closing at 200.75 €/t—down 0.60% on the day. The December contract mirrored these losses, highlighting a broadly pessimistic short-term sentiment amid expectations of strong ending stocks and a healthy new crop. Russia's anticipated reduction in exports this marketing year, though still robust at 44.5 million tonnes, contributed to volatility, as traders weigh the interplay between Russian policy, weather, and global trade uncertainties—including tensions hinted at by the latest U.S.-China rhetoric. Meanwhile, weather relief in drought-affected Europe has tempered concerns about yield losses, though some crop ratings have slipped in France, according to Francesgrimer. Against this backdrop, global wheat prices face pressure but remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, speculative flows, and further weather-driven adjustments as harvest time approaches.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Russia: 2024/25 exports projected at 44.5 million tonnes (down year-on-year, but above some analyst forecasts).
• European Union: Large ending stocks expected post-season; recovery in crop yield potential after recent rains.
• Ukraine: Stable export flows with competitive pricing; Odesa and Kyiv price levels steady.
• Trade Flows: Sluggish EU export pace; ongoing competition from Black Sea origin wheat; trade uncertainty amplified by U.S.-China tensions.

📊 Fundamentals

• Crop Ratings (France): Slight decrease by late May, but less pronounced deterioration compared to prior weeks.
• Speculation: Bearish sentiment prevails on futures; speculative funds increase short positioning amid ample global stocks and improving crop prospects.
• Export Outlook: Sovicon lifted its Russian 2025/26 export outlook citing improved harvest conditions; Western European exports may lag amid stronger Russian flows.

⛅ Weather & Yield Outlook

• Western Europe: Recent rainfall has alleviated drought stress in key northern regions, boosting yield outlook for summer harvest.
• Black Sea (Russia/Ukraine): Favorable seasonal weather anticipated, supporting upward revision in Russian export projections for next season.
• US Plains: No major weather threats detected in latest forecast; stable early-summer conditions expected.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

💡 Trading Outlook

• Short-term downside risk persists amid ample global supply and bearish sentiment.
• Watch for further Russian export updates and harvest progress; volatility expected if Russian forecasts shift or weather reverses.
• Monitor EU weather into June—yield outlook stabilization could support prices, while major setbacks may trigger rallies.
• Trade cautiously—momentum strategies favored in current environment; physical buyers may look to secure forward positions near recent lows.
• Macro factors: geopolitics (U.S.-China, Russian export policy) remain key wildcards.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast