The global rapeseed (canola) market continues to face strong downward pressure as supply outlooks improve and macroeconomic headwinds weigh on oilseed-derived products like biodiesel. During May, favorable weather patterns in the EU, Ukraine, and Canada have boosted rapeseed and canola crop prospects, while energy markets remain bearish. Biofuel prices are under extra pressure following the US government's decision not to expand the biodiesel blending mandate for 2026, contrary to industry hopes. In Ukraine, abundant rains spurred renewed flowering and pod formation, lifting yield expectations but complicating harvest timing and potentially impacting oil content and quality. Traders responded to these dynamics by cutting forward prices for July rapeseed deliveries through the Black Sea ports.

Meanwhile, Canadian canola sowing is nearly complete, with beneficial growing conditions but weaker seed processing rates. This, coupled with declines in meal and oil exports—especially to China and the US—contributed to lower domestic prices. On major exchanges, Paris August rapeseed futures and Canadian ICE canola both retreated sharply week-on-week, dragging down international price benchmarks. Lower global oil prices and renewed tensions between the US and China are expected to keep biofuel and oilseed product markets suppressed. Against this backdrop, traders and processors must stay nimble as harvest and export season approaches, with sharp attention to weather risks and demand trends.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• EU & Ukraine: Excellent May weather favors higher yields. Ukraine's abundant rainfall boosted pod and bloom development, but maturity may be uneven, affecting oil content/quality.
• Canada: 82-88% of canola area sown by late May. Favorable weather supports crop outlook, but lower crush rates and weak export demand are capping prices.
• China & US Demand: Canada’s April canola processing fell 10% MoM and 4% YoY, mainly due to lower meal exports to China and oil exports to the US.
• Biodiesel: Global biodiesel price pressure is exacerbated by weak oil prices and the US government’s reluctance to boost the 2026 blending mandate.

📊 Fundamentals

• Canada processed 0.92 Mt of canola in April (down from 1.025 Mt in March); cumulative (Aug-Apr) up 5% YoY but near-term demand underperforms.
• Exchange and forward prices retreating on improved crop outlook and commodity weakness.
• International oil prices are down due to higher supply and macro demand concerns.

☀️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• EU & Ukraine: Short-term forecasts call for continued mild, rainy weather—favorable for pod fill but with risk of staggered maturity. Harvest quality may fall as a result.
• Canada: Forecasts suggest continued seasonable weather, supporting development but potentially leading to rapid maturation if June/July turns hot and dry.
• Global: Watch for volatility from any abrupt weather changes or crop disease outbreaks as harvest nears in key Northern Hemisphere regions.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

🧭 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Watch for further downside in rapeseed/canola prices if weather remains benign and crude oil stays weak.
• Monitor EU and Black Sea rainfall—extended wetness could delay harvest or reduce quality.
• For producers: Hedge exposures if prices recover on short-term volatility.
• For processors: Maintain flexible procurement plans—ample supply may continue to weigh on spot and forward prices.
• Exporters should watch for logistical issues and shifting freight rates, especially to China and the US.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast